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http://www.insanely-great.com/news.php?id=451
The shape of things let unseen
By ron carlson, Insanely Great Mac
May 22nd 2002
With just nine weeks to go before the right coast event, rumors swirl and eddy around
Apple''s Pro desktop line
With the launch of Xserve, it seems a virtual certainty that the next update of
Apple''s Pro desktop line will implement DDR266 RAM. This memory standard has been in
available in PC desktops since early 2001 and continues to be Intel''s choice for
mainstream desktop computers, though VIA and SiS both now offer DDR333 chipsets.
As Apple is decidedly a follower in the area of motherboard technology, it''s likely
that the front-side bus (FSB) on which the CPU sits will be 266MHz (2.1GB/s
bandwidth*). However, it''s possible that Apple will choose to include a 400MHz FSB
(3.2GB/s*) in order to increase throughput and overall performance. This shouldn''t be
technically difficult, as PC motherboard chipset all now offer this in their high-end
chipsets. Nevertheless, Apple''s motherboards tend to lag the PC world by 12 to 18
months and 400MHz FSB technology is relatively new, so look for a faster yet not
cutting-edge FSB speed -- i.e. 266MHz.
Mac OS Rumors (MOSR) speculates that not only will the new Pro systems get faster
GeForce4-family graphics cards, Apple will also implement an 8X AGP slot. To be sure,
there will be faster graphics included, however, 8X AGP isn''t available yet on the PC
side -- press releases yes, but real products, no. Apple''s apparently special
relationship with nVidia could be the trump card that brings 8X AGP to the Mac, but
I''d say this technology won''t likely be available until MWSF in January.
Aside from a faster system bus and juicier memory, the most interesting rumor
circulating about updated Pro towers is the return of six PCI slots. If Apple is to
increase its already hefty share of the media-creation market, six-slot systems are
imperative. I have numerous friends still pluggin along with Jurassic 9600s and they
are loathe to give them up.
MOSR speculates that Pro 2002 desktops will include three 66MHz and three 33MHz slots.
During the height of "G5 fever" in the run up to MWSF last December, the high-end was
pegged at 1.6GHz. It appears that''s about the maximum we can expect when new G4s are
announced in July. MOSR and other sources say, however, that the top end will surpass
1.5GHz and that 1.4GHz is a more reasonable number to expect.
In terms of new and/or improved L3 cache technology, we''ve pretty much got the best
that''s currently available anywhere -- this is perhaps the only area where Macs
excell in comparison to their PC counterparts. But reason we''ve gotten this is
because Macs on the whole lag the throughput provided by PCs -- it''s a fix, it''s a
"kludge" used to make us more equal.
Updated I/O?
FireWire 2.0 (IEEE1394b) won''t likely make an appearance as silicon hasn''t been
announced. It''s possible Apple has managed to keep a lid on 1394b (800Mbs)
developments, but it''s highly unlikely given the number of players involved. It''s
probable that improved 1394a support (i.e. performance that approaches the theoretical
50MB/s maxium of the standard) will be included as TI and others have announced chips
featuring improved throughput.
Outside the Mac space and Japan, where the pursuit of technology is high religion,
FireWire is widely seen as foundering, so there''s not a lot of pressure to push out
the next version of the technology. Last year''s pricing and licensing issues have
been resolved, but Intel has come out against the technology. Moreover, whereas USB
2.0 implementations don''t require vendors to pay royalties, FireWire does.
On the PC side, USB 2.0 is gathering momentum. Intel product manager Grace Wang told
me that she expects one-third of all new PCs shipped by the end of 2003 will include
it. The caveat here, however, is that there are very few devices available that
implement USB 2.0 -- chicken and the egg. Also, some of the implementation problems
that plagued USB 1.0 also appear to be bedeviling v2.0 -- including buggy devices and
slow real-world throughput (13+MB/s as opposed to the advertised maximum of 60MB/s).
Moreover, although FireWire hasn''t really caught on in terms of the broader market,
it has taken firm root in the DV space. Ms. Wang''s assertion that USB 2.0 (480Mbs)
"is for video" doesn''t jibe well with the reality that FireWire owns DV and that
there isn''t any consumer groundswell for USB 2.0-powered video devices -- it''s just
too esoteric for the average user.
The bottom line? Apple''s new PowerMacs won''t likely include USB 2.0 -- there just
aren''t enough devices to warrant it''s inclusion.
Networking
PowerMacs already include Gigabit Ethernet, so it''s unlikely that we''ll see any
change here. It is, of course, possible that Apple will "upgrade" on-board Gigabit
Ethernet from the anaemic 350Mbs speeds now common (Gigabit Ethernet should provide
gigabit throughput, don''t you think?).
It''s widely rumored that Apple will add Bluetooth networking to its Pro desktop line.
Specifics aren''t known, but we reported, quoting MacUser UK, earlier this week that
experts are unconcerned with Apple''s cancellation of Bluetooth adaptor orders because
of the company''s plans to integrated the networking technology into upcoming desktops.
Apple''s WiFi (802.11b) implementation, though static for months, is still cutting
edge. It''s quite possible that we will see new PowerMacs with a faster implementation
-- 22Mbps and 54Mbps chips are available.
Wrap up
We will be seeing faster memory (DDR266) and CPUs, but clock speeds will likely still
be under 1.5GHz. The high-end will still be a dual processor G4, even if Apple does
call it a "G5." 8X AGP is an intriguing possibility and would do much to dispell the
impression that Macs lag behind in graphics technology, but to me it doesn''t seem
likely given the relative immaturity of the standard and lack of hardware.
Also, the advent of DDR266 is an important milestone for the Mac and Apple will likely
emphasize this with new enclosures. It would be wise if Apple concurrently included
noise, power and heat-reduction technologies -- these issues are of increasing
importance to users and administrators.
* These numbers taken from a VIA whitepapers on DDR266 memory technology (
KT266WhitePaper.pdf ) and 400MHz FSB technology (p4m_whitepaper.PDF), respectively.
Xserve does advertise 2.1Gbs memory throughput, therefore, it''s reasonable to assume
that new PowerMacs will match this.
Post your comments at:
http://www.insanely-great.com/news.php?id=451
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Copyright (c) 2001 Insanely Great Mac. All rights reserved. This article
may not be republished in part or whole without explicit written
permission from IGM Publishing.
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