I can assure you, FS is feeling no pressure from either VO or NVDA and only a tiny bit of pressure from System Access. Window-Eyes will continue to see their share decrease slowly but will maintain a slow growth in numbers of units sold as the market continues to expand annually.
There is absolutely no evidence that FS is feeling pressure from any other screen reader. I do think that BrailleNote is beating PAC Mate pretty solidly and that OpenBook trails K1000 more and more each year but it will require a major tectonic shift to knock JAWS down a notch in global share. VO doesn't even try to work in many multi-byte languages like Japanese, Arabic, various Chinese writing systems and probably a few I can't think of right now. If you take a look at how programs called input method editors (IME) work, you'll understand the incredible complexity a screen reader must overcome to give the user reasonable feedback during input. FS sells more than half of JAWS units outside the US and is in far more languages than anyone else with Dolphin coming in second. Any screen reader can do a decent job in the Western European languages and writing systems but toss Japanese which can have four separate writing systems combined in a single document plus lots of words that sound very similar but have terribly different definitions and, unless the screen reader gets it right, a user may tell his boss that he loves him very much and, with the same set of phonemes but different glyphs, tell his wife that he wants to share an umbrella with her. With help from IBM, we got JAWS to work pretty well in Japanese and in the modern Chinese Mandarin writing system. Hal does a pretty good job with the Microsoft IME but users still find them accidentally signing a note with the name of a flower instead of the equivalent of Fred which can be very embarrassing On Dec 2, 2009, at 1:28 PM, John G. Heim wrote: > The real deal breaker was voiceover and nvda. Even if you buy the argument > that Microsoft might have driven FS and GWM out of business if they'd > improved narrator, FS and GWM are facing that same pressure as a result of > voiceover and nvda anyway. > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Chris Hofstader" <c...@hofstader.com> > To: <macvisionaries@googlegroups.com> > Sent: Wednesday, December 02, 2009 8:10 AM > Subject: Re: Economics and the Mac > > > Ted Henter, at the 1996 NFB convention made the argument in a speech he > delivered that an MS solution would never be as comprehensive as JAWS or one > of the other screen access tools from the niche companies because it would > never be their highest priority (you can probably find the entire text of > the speech online). In some ways, I think Ted had a point as MS may have > built something that's "good enough" for let's say about 80% of blind > computer users and, with their market cut by such a huge chunk, JAWS, > Window-Eyes, etc. would not have the resources to serve the final 20% who > would probably lose jobs as this is the area where the high priced screen > readers do outperform more generic solutions. > > That speech was before Sections 504 and 508 which changes things as the > federal government may stop purchasing or upgrading Windows if they do not > have a comprehensive solution like JAWS. The Social Security > Administration, the single largest employer of blind people in the US, has a > whole lot of oddball proprietary software which really need the JAWS or now > Window-Eyes scripting facilities to get right. If MS put out a solution > that couldn't be customized properly and JAWS stopped developing solutions > good enough to meet the needs of SSA, about 1000 blinks could be furloughed > until a solution was found. > > It's all a nasty rat's nest in this biz. A combination of politics, > technology, fiscal concerns and monopoly like behavior can be really > discouraging. I've definitely spent too much time thinking about and > writing emails on this subject the past couple of days than is healthy. I'm > really enjoying Mark and the others on this list for making me think hard > about these issues but I grow increasingly less hopeful with each email I > write as the whole thing looks increasingly grim. > > cdh > On Dec 1, 2009, at 5:10 PM, John G. Him wrote: > >> Several years ago, Microsoft began working on improvements to narrator >> that >> would make it a realistically usable screen reader. But the National >> Federation of the Blind asked them to stop. The reasoning was that if >> Microsoft improved narrator, it might drive Freedom Scientific and GW >> Micro >> out of business. They thought that narrator would never reach the quality >> of >> Jaws and window-eyes yet it might still be good enough to drive those >> products out of the market. >> >> Obviously, that decision was somewhat controversial at the time. I argued >> that it made no sense to think that narrator could be at once too crummy >> to >> be used and at the same time good enough to drive jFS and GWM out of >> business. I didn't anticipate the development of the other free screen >> readers, voiceover, nvda, and orca. But certainly, that's another point >> against the NFB position. >> >> On the other hand, I don't think I'd like to switch to voiceover or nvda >> full-time. They are not quite up to the standard set by jaws yet. >> >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: "Lynn Schneider" <canepri...@gmail.com> >> To: <macvisionaries@googlegroups.com> >> Sent: Monday, November 30, 2009 10:54 PM >> Subject: Re: Economics and the Mac >> >> >> I purchased my first Apple computer about three months ago. I will never >> forget the feeling of complete surprise and joy at being able to just turn >> the iMac on and get it talking within minutes. Microsoft is not to blame >> for not having default Windows access out of the box, blind people are to >> blame. As Mark said, thinking outside the box can get you into hot water. >> A few years ago on a blindness-related list, I made the cataclysmic >> mistake >> of expressing my wish that some day, windows would be accessible out of >> the >> box. You would not believe the hate mail I received from tons of blind >> people basically saying that I wanted a free lunch, I was ungrateful for >> all >> the hard work and research of the screen reader companies, etc. etc. >> Honestly, it was totally shocking to me that I would get such ire for >> simply >> suggesting that we ought to have access to something our sighted peers >> take >> for granted without having to pay thousands of dollars extra. But, being >> on >> this list and seeing all the other blind switchers out there, I feel at >> least a tiny bit vindicated, as blind people are starting to see the >> benefits of universal access. I really think it is the young blind people >> who are going to demand universal access, at least I hope so. They are >> the >> ones who are going to benefit most from being able to buy an iPhone or >> iPod >> Touch like their peers and just start using the thing, and they are >> hopefully going to demand more of that. With chips being so cheap now, >> there is absolutely no reason why universal access cannot be built right >> into things. The best thing we can all do is to spread the word far and >> wide about what Apple has been able to accomplish with their products and >> make them an example of what can be. >> >> On Nov 30, 2009, at 9:27 PM, Richie Gardenhire wrote: >> >>> I have changed the subject line to more reflect on the discussion at >>> hand. If Apple can set aside resources to make their Mac computers >>> universally marketed across the board, there is no reason why >>> Microsoftshouldn't, (and they definitely have the resources and the >>> technical expertise throughout the company) to do so. And if it >>> brings the prices down, and Microsoft does, for example, develop a >>> mechanism by which Windows can be installed out of the box without >>> sighted assistance, companies such as Freedom Scientific would then be >>> forced to either go with the trend; otherwise, they would lose their >>> economic dolars; after all, isn't that what competition for tax >>> dollars and marketshare is all about? In my humble opinion, for what >>> it's worth, the only reason Freedom Scientific survives in the market >>> is because they have contracted with some state agencies and >>> government entities, and we bare the brunt of the expense ineirectly. >>> I paid less for my car than I have for braille displays costing $8000 >>> to $12,000 dollars at a time. In Alaska, for example, the biggest >>> majority of vision loss occurs in the elderly population and baby >>> boomers who are about to reach retirement age. We have no school for >>> the blind in Alaska; therefore, if parents want to send their blind >>> kids off to a residential school, they would have to send them >>> Stateside, which costs the state thousands of dollars which they could >>> probably find other revenues to use elsewhere.There are a handful of >>> us who are blind and visually-impaired Macusers, but that numberis >>> increasing, as the word about VoiceOver gets out. Richie Gardenhire, >>> Anchorage, Alaska. >>> >>> >>> On Nov 30, 2009, at 1:21 PM, carlene knight wrote: >>> >>> I know that the companies take huge advantage of the fact that they >>> have a guaranteed nitch and can charge whatever they want. That's why >>> I will not upgrade my JAWS SMA. For one thing I don't need it and >>> secondly, I don't want to pay that kind of price for an upgrade, but >>> FS knows that they can get away with it because of a guaranteed >>> market. I'm not saying things could not change, but simply stating >>> that you can't get JAWS or a Braille display from a home electronics >>> ore software store, and I wouldn't expect to happen any time soon if >>> ever. In their eyes, why should They bother as they won't sell enough >>> of them to make it worth their while. There is a cell phone put out >>> by Capital Accessibility in Europe. I've seen one and it's no big >>> deal. The speech is great, but there is no camera, digital screen, or >>> anything that might ad a bit of a price to the phone. It's built like >>> a brick, but it is over $500 and though the speech is clear, it's very >>> robotic. Tell me that's not ridiculous? I don't know that agencies >>> are responsible for this one, but the phone is so tailored to our >>> needs that somebody will buy it. Not me. Granted, if more people >>> were learning braille and speech software as they were dealing with >>> macular degeneration, and there was a big enough demand for it, things >>> might come down a bit. That's great about the scanner. I'd better >>> stop typing now as I am misspelling more things than I am typing >>> correctly and am about to throw this keyboard, though it's not at fault. >>> >>> On Nov 30, 2009, at 1:46 PM, Richie Gardenhire wrote: >>> >>>> With all due respect, that argument has been used time and time >>>> again. To that, I say this: the best example of a product that has >>>> gone down in price because of the acceptance of it by the sighted >>>> community, is the optical scanner, which was originally intended for >>>> use by the blind for scanning newspapers, magazines, and othr >>>> documents in their computers or reading machines. Back then, you had >>>> to pay thousands of dolars for the machine, and ys, state agencies >>>> bought it for us, if we were lucky. Now, one can buy a scanner and to >>>> a certain extent, software for scanning pictures, text, and other >>>> document forms into one's PC, at a fraction of the cost it was in the >>>> 1970's. The point here is that it found a marketable niche among the >>>> sighted community, and once they were mass-produced, prices started >>>> coming down and people could afford said scanners. While braille >>>> displays are another issue, there are companies who are working to >>>> make even displays more affordable and accepting to the universal >>>> design market. In the 1980's, Apple tried an experiment, using an >>>> ordinary, dot matrix printer, to produce braille. It wasn't the best >>>> quality braille, but it was an experiment that, had it been popular, >>>> might have flown. Richie Gardenhire, Anchorage, Alaska. >>>> >>>> >>>> On Nov 30, 2009, at 11:50 AM, carlene knight wrote: >>>> >>>> Unfortunately you have to be realistic though. I agree with you in a >>>> sense, but going into a store and buying JAWS or Window Eyes off of >>>> the shelf? That would be nice? that's one reason I like the Mac and >>>> accessories. The people in the Mac and Apple stores will likely not >>>> be trained for extensive use with Vo, but they should be able to make >>>> sure it works. Try going into a Best Buy >>>> and asking them if JFW works. We probably make up less than 10% of >>>> the population so it isn't going to happen. It would still be >>>> expensive, and that's why I needed the agency to buy it for me. Again >>>> don't get me wrong, in a perfect world that might happen, but we all >>>> know the world is far from perfect. I'm not trying to defend anybody >>>> necessarily, and I don't consider myself dependent because I need >>>> assistance from them. I got my own jobs, take care of myself, go >>>> where I need to go etc. A good organization helps people become >>>> independent. I agree that whenever possible, we should do for >>>> ourselves and not be too dependent on anybody, agencies included. >>>> >>>> On Nov 30, 2009, at 12:23 PM, Richie Gardenhire wrote: >>>> >>>>> And for this reason, I feel that many state agencies, (Alaska's, >>>>> being >>>>> one of them)will be cutting back services, in favor of other things >>>>> and as Mark so eloquently pointed out, the elderly, the poor, and the >>>>> disabled, will be hurt first. I know thisis a different subject line >>>>> from what was originally intended, and I apologize for that, but I >>>>> will say one more thing on this, and that is that I'm in favor of >>>>> universal design so that blind people can walk into any store and >>>>> purchase off-the-shelf software and get it working and we not be >>>>> forced to be co-dependent on state agencies to purchase our stuff. I >>>>> guess, in a way, I'm against state agencies for the reasons I stated >>>>> above. Richie Gardenhire, Anchorage, Alaska. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On Nov 30, 2009, at 10:32 AM, carlene knight wrote: >>>>> >>>>> Hi Mark: >>>>> >>>>> I certainly don't hold a grudge as everybody is entitled to their >>>>> opinion. However, if it weren't for the Commission for the blind >>>>> here >>>>> in Oregon, there is no way that I could perform the job I was hired >>>>> for. I had to have a programmer write JAWS scripts so that I could >>>>> get to the buttons, read the drop down boxes that just had graphics >>>>> for names, etc. I couldn't have afforded the thousands of dollars >>>>> that >>>>> has costed. He is working as we speak since the company I work for >>>>> has changed software and everything we had done in the past regarding >>>>> the original software is now null and void. I could have not >>>>> afforded >>>>> a Braille display at about 12,000 dollars. I can say with certainty >>>>> that there are few if any companies that would provide any of these >>>>> services. Unfortunately many government funded agencies, including >>>>> the Oregon Commission for the blind do know little about Mac >>>>> accessibility as they have contracts with certain vendors, and, face >>>>> it,whether we like it or not, a majority of companies still use >>>>> Windows based software. My husband and I both decided on our own to >>>>> try the Mac, and though I've had some problems, I'm glad I did. I've >>>>> learned it without an instructor. We nearly lost our Commission last >>>>> summer so when I hear people talking about how we shouldn't have >>>>> government agencies such as this, I have to disagree though they do >>>>> have their problems. Yes, some people do rely on others to much, but >>>>> not all of us do. Like you, I grew up in the public school system in >>>>> a rural area. I was born blind also. I'll get off my soap box now. >>>>> >>>>> On Nov 30, 2009, at 10:51 AM, Mark BurningHawk Baxter wrote: >>>>> >>>>>> You, and I to a lesser extent, and others are the exception. I was >>>>>> born blind, didn't go to any institutions for the blind, was raised >>>>>> as >>>>>> an only child, mostly in rural Vermont with minimal help from state >>>>>> agencies. Graduated from Dartmouth when I was 20, again with >>>>>> minimal >>>>>> if any help from agencies--didn't have my first experience with any >>>>>> agencies or institutions for the blind until I was 24, when the >>>>>> Carroll Center was offering a medical transcription course and I >>>>>> needed another, safer place to be. They kicked me out of their >>>>>> dorm, >>>>>> making me homeless, after six weeks there. Rehab flatly refused to >>>>>> support me and my music career in any way, and pressured me to go to >>>>>> the Carroll Center in the first place, then pressured me to get >>>>>> therapy and reform my ways when they made me homeless. I only >>>>>> started >>>>>> cautiously learning how to deal with the agencies in 2007, when it >>>>>> became clear that my failing hearing was going to force me out of >>>>>> the >>>>>> transcription career I'd had for 13+ years. I learned Jaws and >>>>>> Windows essentially by myself, as I've always been good with tech. >>>>>> Even now, while I may have learned a little about how to get along >>>>>> with the agencies and get what I need, it's a very uneasy truce at >>>>>> best./ I hope to be starting a job at another institution for the >>>>>> blind soon, but this time as a trainer, not a student, which >>>>>> hopefully >>>>>> will turn out better. You can see why I advocate for the abolition >>>>>> of >>>>>> such systems. They do not foster independence of thinking, and tend >>>>>> to punish outside-the-box people, in my experience. I do realize >>>>>> that >>>>>> people blinded later in life may not adapt as fully as those born >>>>>> blind; I'm learning that as I lose my hearing, so I have the >>>>>> privilege >>>>>> of seeing both sides of the coin, but think about what that >>>>>> implies-- >>>>>> that the pressure on those whose world has already been blasted by >>>>>> losing their sight will essentially become putty in the hands of >>>>>> high- >>>>>> pressure agencies who are set in their ways. The system seems to >>>>>> punish at both ends--if you're too independent, you're pressured to >>>>>> conform; if you're new to blindness, you're taught not to think for >>>>>> yourself. Hell, I didn't even do mobility orienting stuff until >>>>>> last >>>>>> year, when Rehab here in CA suggested I ry it, and I decided, in the >>>>>> interests of keeping the peace, what the heck; my mobility teacher >>>>>> quickly realized that there was very little, beyond the immediate >>>>>> rehearsing of directions, that she could improve upon what I and my >>>>>> dog were already going. Since I got Trekker, that's even more so; >>>>>> now >>>>>> that Trekker is temporarily broken, I truly feel the loss. :) I >>>>>> don't >>>>>> see how the agencies really have done me any good, other than in the >>>>>> purely material realm, and if I weren't as articulate as I am about >>>>>> stating my needs, and as forceful as I am about what I need, which >>>>>> most people are not, even that gain might be minimal, and even now >>>>>> the >>>>>> damage is significant. So, that's where my beef with the system(s) >>>>>> comes in; sorry if that makes it a personal grudge, but there you >>>>>> are >>>>>> then. >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> Mark BurningHawk Baxter >>>>>> >>>>>> Skype and Twitter: BurningHawk1969 >>>>>> MSN: burninghawk1...@hotmail.com >>>>>> My home page: >>>>>> http://MarkBurningHawk.net/ >>>>>> >>>>>> -- >>>>>> >>>>>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>>>> Groups "MacVisionaries" group. >>>>>> To post to this group, send email to >>>>>> macvisionar...@googlegroups.com. >>>>>> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>>>>> macvisionaries+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com >>>>>> . >>>>>> For more options, visit this group at >>>>>> http://groups.google.com/group/macvisionaries?hl=en >>>>>> . >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>> >>>>> -- >>>>> >>>>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>>> Groups "MacVisionaries" group. >>>>> To post to this group, send email to macvisionar...@googlegroups.com. >>>>> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>>>> macvisionaries+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com >>>>> . >>>>> For more options, visit this group at >>>>> http://groups.google.com/group/macvisionaries?hl=en >>>>> . >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> -- >>>>> >>>>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>>> Groups "MacVisionaries" group. >>>>> To post to this group, send email to macvisionar...@googlegroups.com. >>>>> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>>>> macvisionaries+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com >>>>> . >>>>> For more options, visit this group at >>>>> http://groups.google.com/group/macvisionaries?hl=en >>>>> . >>>>> >>>>> >>>> >>>> -- >>>> >>>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>> Groups "MacVisionaries" group. >>>> To post to this group, send email to macvisionar...@googlegroups.com. >>>> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>>> macvisionaries+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com >>>> . >>>> For more options, visit this group at >>>> http://groups.google.com/group/macvisionaries?hl=en >>>> . >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> -- >>>> >>>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>> Groups "MacVisionaries" group. >>>> To post to this group, send email to macvisionar...@googlegroups.com. >>>> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>>> macvisionaries+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com >>>> . >>>> For more options, visit this group at >>>> http://groups.google.com/group/macvisionaries?hl=en >>>> . >>>> >>>> >>> >>> -- >>> >>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>> Groups "MacVisionaries" group. >>> To post to this group, send email to macvisionar...@googlegroups.com. >>> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>> macvisionaries+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com >>> . >>> For more options, visit this group at >>> http://groups.google.com/group/macvisionaries?hl=en >>> . >>> >>> >>> >>> -- >>> >>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >>> "MacVisionaries" group. >>> To post to this group, send email to macvisionar...@googlegroups.com. >>> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>> macvisionaries+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. >>> For more options, visit this group at >>> http://groups.google.com/group/macvisionaries?hl=en. >>> >>> >> >> -- >> >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "MacVisionaries" group. >> To post to this group, send email to macvisionar...@googlegroups.com. >> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >> macvisionaries+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. >> For more options, visit this group at >> http://groups.google.com/group/macvisionaries?hl=en. >> >> >> >> -- >> >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "MacVisionaries" group. >> To post to this group, send email to macvisionar...@googlegroups.com. >> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >> macvisionaries+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. >> For more options, visit this group at >> http://groups.google.com/group/macvisionaries?hl=en. >> >> > > -- > > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "MacVisionaries" group. > To post to this group, send email to macvisionar...@googlegroups.com. > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > macvisionaries+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. > For more options, visit this group at > http://groups.google.com/group/macvisionaries?hl=en. > > > > -- > > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "MacVisionaries" group. > To post to this group, send email to macvisionar...@googlegroups.com. > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > macvisionaries+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. > For more options, visit this group at > http://groups.google.com/group/macvisionaries?hl=en. > > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "MacVisionaries" group. To post to this group, send email to macvisionar...@googlegroups.com. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to macvisionaries+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/macvisionaries?hl=en.
