> On 13 Sep 2022, at 00:54, Brandon Long via mailop <[email protected]> wrote: > > On Mon, Sep 12, 2022 at 4:16 PM Paul Kincaid-Smith <[email protected] > <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: > > We have a reasonably large sample of messages sent from Gmail, Yahoo and > Outlook and can assess how much was "spam foldered" by each of those > services. We are in the same ballpark as John Levine, who estimated that > "about 30% of the mail I get from Gmail is spam." > > EmailGrades collects metrics about senders and receivers, primarily to > measure inbox placement and recipient engagement for commercial ESPs vs a > cohort of their peers, but we also have insights regarding messages sent by > mailbox providers like Gmail, Yahoo and Outlook. For the month of August > 2022, millions of messages received from Gmail, Yahoo and Outlook's email > infrastructure by hundreds of thousands of panel mailboxes reveals the > following spam foldering rates: > > Received at Gmail | Received at Yahoo | Received at Outlook > Sent from Gmail 16% 38% 49% > Sent from Outlook 47% 78% 47% > Sent from Yahoo 5% 3% 9% > > The way to read this table is, "Of the messages received by our Yahoo panel > mailboxes, 38% of those sent by Gmail were routed to Yahoo's spam folder" and > "Of the messages received by our Outlook panel mailboxes, 9% of those sent by > Yahoo were routed to Outlook's junk mail folder" and "Of the messages > received by our Gmail panel mailboxes, 47% of those sent by Outlook were > routed to Gmail's spam folder." > > Does this indicate actual spam or just marked spam by the mailbox provider? > Does this indicate authenticated by > the sender provider, or less? This gets even more complicated when you talk > dkim replay.
There was an interesting BoF discussion about this in London recently. I can share more details in a less public channel if you’re interested in discussing it. The upshot is that there is a LOT of B2B spam coming out of Gmail, Google Apps and O365. In fact the shared numbers track pretty closely with what was reported during the session. There’s an entire ecosystem of software, consultants and tools to help companies use Google to spam. There’s even advice on how to avoid google’s automated filters that stop a single user from sending more than 500 (or 1000 depending) emails per day. > Anyways, this also may indicate something else we know, which is that > spammers know that spamming another > gmail account is a great way for us to find them, so they tend to use Gmail > to spam non-Gmail. Google is great at blocking mail coming into their systems. They’re very much less good at blocking mail going out of their systems. > These numbers are also worse than when I worked on Gmail years ago, but it's > always possible things > got worse. As a recipient, Google is one of the primary sources of spam that makes it to my inbox. These percentages are higher than I’ve seen others report, but are in the same ballpark. > All other things being equal, Outlook filters messages from Gmail most > aggressively. Yahoo filters messages from Outlook most aggressively. Outlook > filters messages from Yahoo most aggressively. > > Outlook's spam percentages are higher than Gmail's but that may be because > Outlook chooses to block less outbound mail and instead flags questionable > outbound messages, sending them via a pool of IPs that ought to receive > additional filtering scrutiny. > > I expect any reputation based anti-spam system should be able to tell whether > an MSP does this. Google definitely had separate sending pools for various > things in the past, and does expect that receivers would eventually learn and > apply differential filtering based on that. No idea what the current system > does. The current system is pretty broken, but the bulk of the abuse is to business addresses and is designed to look like relatively normal B2B mail. The fact that the addresses are purchased or scraped is the big sign that the mail is spam. OTOH, I’m hearing a lot of complaining from the B2B spammers that the effectiveness of this mail is going way down. I don’t think this is really a filter issue - a lot of business filters let this mail through and let the company decide if they want to block the sender. I think the volume has gotten so high that recipients are Just Done with this baloney. laura — The Delivery Experts Laura Atkins Word to the Wise [email protected] Email Delivery Blog: http://wordtothewise.com/blog
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