Hi Paul In a previous role I was involved in using population projection information from Stats NZ for local area analysis (such as district) to identify the suitability of new school sites. The projections are based on a methodology using fertility, mortality and migration assumptions under a high, medium and low scenario's. We also used quarterly building consent information as well as our own survey that looked at where kids where living in relation to the school to identify growth. Looking at the number of building consents issued, and the average household size and comparing that to the projection information can also give an indication on how much growth might be expected. Some of these things might help but it is difficult to account for seasonal fluctuations.
Scott Pontifex GIS Programmer Demography/Population Program Secretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC) B.P.D5, Noumea Cedex 98848 New Caledonia Phone (687) 26.20.00 ext(331) Fax (687) 26.38.18 E-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] www.spc.int/demog -----Original Message----- From: Paul Tuckley [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Wednesday, 12 November 2003 1:39 PM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: MI-L NZ Specific Question RE: Population Growth Study Hi, I am in the process of producing a population and dwellings growth study for the Whangarei District Council covering the period 2001-2021. Getting hold of useful data for this study is proving a bit tricky, I have been using councils in-house datasets combined with the 91, 96 and 01 census data. This methodology has various problems not least of which is the fact that the data does not take into account seasonal population fluctuations which can be very pronounced especially in the coastal areas of Whangarei. Has anybody else conducted this kind of survey before in New Zealand (or anywhere else for that matter) and if so could you please give me some pointers as to ways of improving accuracy. The council are happy to purchase data if it is needed. Thanks in advance Paul Tuckley --- Incoming mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.538 / Virus Database: 333 - Release Date: 10/11/2003 --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.538 / Virus Database: 333 - Release Date: 10/11/2003
