Quoth Brian Holtz: > LP radicals -- like Tom Knapp, Susan Hogarth, and perhaps the > oh-so-conflicted Angela Keaton -- are immune to his Svengali-like > powers of moderation.
The Libertarian National Committee voted last weekend to endorse Paul for the presidency by making him the only LNC-invitee to seek the LP's presidential nomination. That vote was unanimous. Angela Keaton is an at-large member of the LNC, and she was present at the meeting. QED, she is not immune to the Paul phenomenon (I'm also told she has committed to making volunteer calls on Paul's behalf, presumably using the LP's BallotBase asset, which the LNC also voted to put at the disposal of Paul's Republican primary campaign in New Hampshire). >Tom Knapp estimates a 90% chance of Ron Paul seeking the LP > nomination Actually, I've increased that estimate to 95%. 90% was when the LNC "invited" him to do so, which I do not believe Bob Barr would have proposed if he hadn't already run the idea past the Paul campaign and been given the go-ahead. I upgraded the chance by 2% when instead of declining the invitation and doing so personally, Paul had a spokesman deliver the "no intention" line (which is politicalese for "probably, but I can't say that in public yet"). I upgraded it another 3% when Paul declined to put his "won't run third party" "intention" at 100%, instead giving it 99.99% (politicalese for "I want to be able to say I told you there was a chance this would happen"). The other 5% is an over-accounting for his (decreasing, with Huckabee's surge) chances of winning the GOP nomination. In early November, I had him picked for second in New Hampshire and to carry several small states. Now I doubt he'll carry any, although I wouldn't entirely write off his chances in Alaska, Nevada and Montana. I still haved McCain picked to emerge from "Super Duper Tuesday" with ~800 of the 1200 or so delegates he needs to nail the nomination down, and running the table after that. Don't call me timid on predictions, anyway. Regards, Tom Knapp
