Quoth Brian Holtz: ----- Oddly, the spitting druid who had his LP gubernatorial nomination rescinded got 2.1% in 2002, while 2008 presidential candidate Steve Kubby got 0.9% running for governor in 1998. To Tom Knapp: you should have a response ready if an opponent cites this comparison to question Kubby's ability to draw votes. -----
And I do. Actually, I researched California's gubernatorial election results fairly early on, specifically because at one point it was rumored that Mr. Olivier himself would be entering the LP presidential nomination race. Put simply: Copeland's vote total fits neatly into a "third party surge" trend that year, and slightly downward from Kubby as a percentage of that third party vote, even though Copeland had fewer third party competitors. In 1998, Steve Kubby came in 4th with 0.88%, behind a Green candidate who got 1.24% and ahead of the Peace and Freedom candidate (0.71%), the AIP candidate (0.45%) and the Natural Law candidate (0.37%). In 2002, Gary Copeland (2.2%) also came in 4th, behind Green Peter Camejo (5.3%) and ahead of the AIP candidate (1.7%) and the Natural Law candidate (1.1%). In 2006, Art Olivier (1.3%) came in fourth (see a trend there?), behind Camejo again (2.3%), and ahead of the P&F candidate (08.%) and AIP candidate (0.7%). In 1998, Kubby got 24% of the third party vote, competing against four third party opponents. In 2002, Copeland got 21% of the third party vote, competing against three other third party candidates. In 2006, Olivier got 30% of the third party vote, competing against three third party opponents. Before the Green Party came into existence, the LP candidate routinely came in third rather than fourth, but the LP's percentage of the third party vote was trending downward. In 1994, Richard Rider got 40% of the third party vote. In 1990, Dennis Thompson got 38% of the third party vote. And in 1986, Joseph Fuhrig got 33% of the third party vote. That trend continued -- and was accentuated by the Green entry into California politics -- with Kubby and Copeland. If I was in the business of attacking Kubby (I'm not), I'd say "look, Kubby's performance was downward beyond the prior trend, and Copeland got more votes than he did four years later." If I was in the business of defending Kubby (I am), I'd say "look, if it hadn't been Kubby in 1998, the LP candidate would likely have come in fifth instead of fourth, Copeland would have placed dead last in 2002, and we'd be behind the Peace and Freedom and AIP folks to this day. Instead, Kubby held the line remarkably well given the appeal of the Greens to many California constituencies, probably at least in part because he appeals to some of those same constituencies in a way that the LP in general is over-cautious about approaching. His 1998 campaign made it possible for even an unappealing candidate like Copeland to keep the LP in fourth place in 2002, and that in turn made it possible for Olivier to start bucking upward against the long-term trend in 2006." Regards, Tom Knapp
