Quoth Brian Holtz: > In today's California LP presidential beauty contest, I predict that > Wayne Allyn Root will come in a clear first, and that George > Phillies > will edge native son Steve Kubby. Even here in the Bay Area, I don't > perceive a lot of the favoritism one would expect in the incumbent > parties for a native son, but Kubby's name recognition could confound > my guess here.
There are all kinds of wild cards in LP primary elections. Name recognition (or similarity to a recognized name) can make a big difference in a primary where the vast majority of Libertarian voters don't see their options on the nightly news. Kubby has better name rec, especially in California, but it's hard to say whether that will play much. I suspect many of his supporters are registered Green or Democrat. Ballot order can make a huge difference among those voters who register and/or vote third party as a protest but who aren't involved much and who don't see "their" party's candidates on the nightly news. Wayne Root is, I believe, first on the Missouri ballot, and Phillies on the California ballot. As "the candidate who endorsed Paul," here is one place where Kubby loses out -- those Libertarians who changed their registration in California, or who will be picking up a GOP rather than LP ballot in Missouri, to support Paul are probably somewhat more likely to have been "if not for Paul, Kubby" than "if not for Paul, someone other than Kubby" voters. Naturally, whichever candidate(s) win(s) will use their victory(ies) for whatever publicity can be gained. Naturally, the candidates who lose will point out that the LP primaries are non-binding and that the last LP nominee didn't win any of them (we had four in 2004, I believe -- the other two were Massachusetts and Wisconsin). And, naturally, I'll maintained an unconcerned air here -- and check the returns as they come in. It may be non-binding and it may be unimportant in the scheme of things, but Super Duper Tuesday is a junkie's second-favorite fix ;-) Tom Knapp
