Dear list members
The paper below has just been published in PlosOne
Kaschner K, Tittensor DP, Ready J, Gerrodette T,
Worm B, 2011 Current and Future Patterns of
Global Marine Mammal Biodiversity. PLoS ONE 6(5):
e19653. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0019653
Abstract
Quantifying the spatial distribution of taxa is
an important prerequisite for the preservation of
biodiversity, and can provide a baseline against
which to measure the impacts of climate change.
Here we analyse patterns of marine mammal species
richness based on predictions of global
distributional ranges for 115 species, including
all extant pinnipeds and cetaceans. We used an
environmental suitability model specifically
designed to address the paucity of distributional
data for many marine mammal species. We generated
richness patterns by overlaying predicted
distributions for all species; these were then
validated against sightings data from dedicated
long-term surveys in the Eastern Tropical
Pacific, the Northeast Atlantic and the Southern
Ocean. Model outputs correlated well with
empirically observed patterns of biodiversity in
all three survey regions. Marine mammal richness
was predicted to be highest in temperate waters
of both hemispheres with distinct hotspots around
New Zealand, Japan, Baja California, the
Galapagos Islands, the Southeast Pacific, and the
Southern Ocean. We then applied our model to
explore potential changes in biodiversity under
future perturbations of environmental conditions.
Forward projections of biodiversity using an
intermediate Intergovernmental Panel for Climate
Change (IPCC) temperature scenario predicted that
projected ocean warming and changes in sea ice
cover until 2050 may have moderate effects on the
spatial patterns of marine mammal richness.
Increases in cetacean richness were predicted
above 40° latitude in both hemispheres, while
decreases in both pinniped and cetacean richness
were expected at lower latitudes. Our results
show how species distribution models can be
applied to explore broad patterns of marine
biodiversity worldwide for taxa for which limited
distributional data are available.
The paper can be downloaded from PlosOne:
http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0019653
best regards
Kristin
*************************************
Kristin Kaschner, Ph.D.
Evolutionary Biology & Ecology Lab
Institute of Biology I (Zoology)
Albert-Ludwigs-University
Freiburg, Germany
ph: ++ 49 178 547 7760
email: [email protected]
http://www.biologie.uni-freiburg.de/data/bio1/kaschner/index.html
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