Dear all,
Thanks to my co-authors and all the people involved throughout the years of 
aerial monitoring of the seals in the Wadden Sea, I am happy to announce our 
recent publication in the open-access journal PLoS ONE

Echoes from the past: Regional variations in recovery within a harbour seal 
population
Sophie M. J. M. Brasseur , Peter J. H. Reijnders, Jenny Cremer, Erik Meesters, 
Roger Kirkwood, Lasse Fast Jensen, Armin Jeβ, Anders Galatius, Jonas Teilmann, 
Geert Aarts
Published: January 3, 2018https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0189674

Read the full publication via:
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0189674

Abstract
Terrestrial and marine wildlife populations have been severely reduced by 
hunting, fishing and habitat destruction, especially in the last centuries. 
Although management regulations have led to the recovery of some populations, 
the underlying processes are not always well understood. This study uses a 
40-year time series of counts of harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) in the Wadden 
Sea to study these processes, and demonstrates the influence of historical 
regional differences in management regimes on the recovery of this population. 
While the Wadden Sea is considered one ecologically coupled zone, with a 
distinct harbour seal population, the area is divided into four geo-political 
regions i.e. the Netherlands, Lower Saxony including Hamburg, 
Schleswig-Holstein and Denmark. Gradually, seal hunting was banned between 1962 
and 1977 in the different regions.

Counts of moulting harbour seals and pup counts, obtained during aerial surveys 
between 1974 and 2014, show a population growth from approximately 4500 to 
39,000 individuals. Population growth models were developed to assess if 
population growth differed between regions, taking into account two Phocine 
Distemper Virus (PDV) epizootics, in 1988 and 2002 which seriously affected the 
population.

After a slow start prior to the first epizootic, the overall population grew 
exponentially at rates close to assumed maximum rates of increase in a harbour 
seal population. Recently, growth slowed down, potentially indicative of 
approaching carrying capacity. Regional differences in growth rates were 
demonstrated, with the highest recovery in Netherlands after the first PDV 
epizootic (i.e. 17.9%), suggesting that growth was fuelled by migration from 
the other regions, where growth remained at or below the intrinsic growth rate 
(13%). The seals' distribution changed, and although the proportion of seals 
counted in the German regions declined, they remained by far the most important 
pupping region, with approximately 70% of all pups being born there. It is 
hypothesised that differences in hunting regime, preceding the protection in 
the 1960's and 1970's, created unbalance in the distribution of breeding 
females throughout the Wadden Sea, which prevailed for decades. Breeding site 
fidelity promoted the growth in pup numbers at less affected breeding sites, 
while recolonisation of new breeding areas would be suppressed by the 
philopatry displayed by the animals born there. This study shows that for 
long-lived species, variable management regimes in this case hunting 
regulations, across a species' range can drive population dynamics for several 
generations.

Best regards,
Sophie

Dr. Sophie M.J.M. Brasseur
Marine Mammalogist
tel. +31 317 487072
home +31 6 215 677 41
sophie.brass...@wur.nl<mailto:sophie.brass...@wur.nl>

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