Hi Marmam colleagues,

My co-authors and I would like to share with you our recent publication:

Cartwright, R., Venema, A., Hernandez, V., Wyels, C., Cesere, J., & Cesere, D. 
(2019). Fluctuating reproductive rates in Hawaii's humpback whales, Megaptera 
novaeangliae, reflect recent climate anomalies in the North Pacific. Royal 
Society Open Science, 6(3), 181463

Abstract
Alongside changing ocean temperatures and ocean chemistry, anthropogenic 
climate change is now impacting the fundamental processes that support marine 
systems. However, where natural climate aberrations mask or amplify the impacts 
of anthropogenic climate change, identifying key detrimental changes is 
challenging. In these situations, long-term, systematic field studies allow the 
consequences of anthropogenically driven climate change to be distinguished 
from the expected fluctuations in natural resources. In this study, we describe 
fluctuations in encounter rates for humpback whales, Megaptera novaeangliae, 
between 2008 and 2018. Encounter rates were assessed during transect surveys of 
the Au'Au Channel, Maui, Hawaii. Initially, rates increased, tracking projected 
growth rates for this population segment. Rates reached a peak in 2013, then 
declined through 2018. Specifically, between 2013 and 2018, mother–calf 
encounter rates dropped by 76.5%, suggesting a rapid reduction in the 
reproductive rate of the newly designated Hawaii Distinct Population Segment of 
humpback whales during this time. As this decline coincided with changes in the 
Pacific decadal oscillation, the development of the NE Pacific marine heat wave 
and the evolution of the 2016 El Niño, this may be another example of the 
impact of this potent trifecta of climatic events within the North Pacific

The open access paper may be reached via this link: 
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.181463

Although the changes documented in the study are potentially concerning, there 
is some good news to report. During the 2019 season, we saw the first signs of 
recovery from this decline, as sighting rates for mother-calf pairs in Maui 
waters rose slightly. Here’s hoping this trend continues.

 With best regards,
Rachel Cartwright

Lead researcher – Keiki Kohola Project.
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.caringforcalves.org



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