Hi all,

On behalf of my co-authors, I would like to announce a recent peer-reviewed
publication on projecting right whale habitat suitability in 2050.

Here is the abstract:

North Atlantic right whales (*Eubalaena glacialis*) are critically
endangered, and recent changes in distribution patterns have been a major
management challenge. Understanding the role that environmental conditions
play in habitat suitability helps to determine the regions in need of
monitoring or protection for conservation of the species, particularly as
climate change shifts suitable habitat. This study used three species
distribution modeling algorithms, together with historical whale abundance
data (1993–2009) and environmental covariate data, to build monthly
ensemble models of past *E. glacialis* habitat suitability in the Gulf of
Maine. The model was projected onto the year 2050 for a range of climate
scenarios. Specifically, the distribution of the species was modeled using
generalized additive models, boosted regression trees, and artificial
neural networks, with environmental covariates that included sea surface
temperature, bottom water temperature, bathymetry, a modeled *Calanus*
*finmarchicus* habitat index, and chlorophyll. Year-2050 projections used
downscaled climate anomaly fields from Representative Concentration Pathway
4.5 and 8.5. The relative contribution of each covariate changed
seasonally, with an increase in the importance of bottom temperature and C.
finmarchicus in the summer, when model performance was highest. A negative
correlation was observed between model performance and sea surface
temperature contribution. The 2050 projections indicated decreased habitat
suitability across the Gulf of Maine in the period from July through
October,with the exception of narrow bands along the Scotian Shelf.The
results suggest that regions outside of the current areas of conservation
focus may become increasingly important habitats for* E. glacialis* under
future climate scenarios.


The paper can be found here:
https://online.ucpress.edu/elementa/article/9/1/00058/116780/Projecting-regions-of-North-Atlantic-right-whale


Please feel free to reach out to me if you would like an electronic copy.


Cheers,

Camille

-- 
Camille Ross

Research Technician, Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences
Oceanography Master's Student, University of Maine, School of Marine
Sciences

Pronouns: she/her/hers

Work: cr...@bigelow.org
School: camille.r...@maine.edu
Office: 207-315-2567 x514
Cell: 732-325-5950
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