Greetings: My co-authors and I are pleased to announce the publication of our 
open access paper in Global Change Biology:

Pendleton DE, Tingley MW, Ganley LC, Friedland KD, Mayo C, Brown MW, McKenna 
BE, Jordaan A, Staudinger MD (2022) Decadal‐scale phenology and seasonal 
climate drivers of migratory baleen whales in a rapidly warming marine 
ecosystem. Global Change Biology. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16225

Abstract: Species' response to rapid climate change can be measured through 
shifts in timing of recurring biological events, known as phenology. The Gulf 
of Maine is one of the most rapidly warming regions of the ocean, and thus an 
ideal system to study phenological and biological responses to climate change. 
A better understanding of climate-induced changes in phenology is needed to 
effectively and adaptively manage human-wildlife conflicts. Using data from a 
20+ year marine mammal observation program, we tested the hypothesis that the 
phenology of large whale habitat use in Cape Cod Bay has changed and is related 
to regional-scale shifts in the thermal onset of spring. We used a multi-season 
occupancy model to measure phenological shifts and evaluate trends in the date 
of peak habitat use for North Atlantic right (Eubalaena glacialis), humpback 
(Megaptera novaeangliae), and fin (Balaenoptera physalus) whales. The date of 
peak habitat use shifted by +18.1 days (0.90 days/year) for right whales and 
+19.1 days (0.96 days/year) for humpback whales. We then evaluated interannual 
variability in peak habitat use relative to thermal spring transition dates 
(STD), and hypothesized that right whales, as planktivorous specialist feeders, 
would exhibit a stronger response to thermal phenology than fin and humpback 
whales, which are more generalist piscivorous feeders. There was a significant 
negative effect of western region STD on right whale habitat use, and a 
significant positive effect of eastern region STD on fin whale habitat use 
indicating differential responses to spatial seasonal conditions. Protections 
for threatened and endangered whales have been designed to align with expected 
phenology of habitat use. Our results show that whales are becoming mismatched 
with static seasonal management measures through shifts in their timing of 
habitat use, and they suggest that effective management strategies may need to 
alter protections as species adapt to climate change.

Regards,
Dan
________________________________________________________
Dan Pendleton, Ph.D.
Research Scientist, Anderson Cabot Center for Ocean Life
New England Aquarium
Central Wharf
Boston, MA 02110
[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>
he/him/his

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