Dear MARMAM'ers,
We are pleased to announce the publication of our article:
“Guadalupe fur seal pup production predicted from annual variations of
sea surface temperature in the southern California Current Ecosystem”
by A. Juárez-Ruiz, M.A. Pardo, J.C. Hernández-Montoya, F.R.
Elorriaga-Verplancken, M. de los Á. Milanés-Salinas, T. Norris, E.
Beier, and G. Heckel.
in The ICES Journal of Marine Science.
ABSTRACT - We evaluated the effects of sea surface temperature anomalies
(SSTA) in the southern California Current Ecosystem on the annual
Guadalupe fur seal (/Arctocephalus townsendi/) pup production, a species
recovering from near extinction. Pup counts from 1991 to 1993 and from
2006 to 2019 were used to estimate deviations from a long-term trend as
a proxy for the population's reproductive success. We estimated
interannual SSTA as a subtraction from the linear trend spanning
1991–2019 for a 778,000 km2 area, which represents the primary foraging
range of adult females. The long-term increase in pup production
followed an exponential curve ( R2B= 1), typical of species in a
recovery phase. Pup production deviations from this trend responded to
SSTA during the gestation period as a cubic polynomial function (R2B=
0.837), revealing that SSTA < −0.2°C and between ∼0.6 and 1.38°C
increased pup production in the subsequent breeding season, whereas
normal to slightly warm (−0.17 to 0.6°C) and extreme SSTA (>1.4°C)
decreased pup counts, arguably resulting from low prey availability and
quality. This model allowed us to estimate pup production for years
without observations, needed to understand the environmental variability
influence on the recovery process of this species, and therefore
constitutes a practical tool for its conservation and management.
The article can be obtained directly from the journal at:
https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsac097
Or upon personal request to the authors at:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/361189585_Guadalupe_fur_seal_pup_production_predicted_from_annual_variations_of_sea_surface_temperature_in_the_southern_California_Current_Ecosystem
Best wishes,
--
Mario A. Pardo
Research Associate
CONACYT - CICESE
La Paz, BCS, Mexico
--
*Mario Pardo*
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