Colin J. Campbell The fundamental driver of the 20th Century’s economic prosperity has been an abundant supply of cheap oil. At first, it came largely from the United States as it opened up its extensive territories with dynamic capitalism and technological prowess. But U.S. discovery peaked around 1930, which inevitably led to a corresponding peak in production some forty years later. The focus of supply then shifted to the Middle East, as its vast resources were tapped by the international companies. They however soon lost their control in a series of expropriations as the host governments sought a greater share of the proceeds. In 1973, some Middle East governments used their control of oil as a weapon in their conflict with Israel’s occupation of Palestine, giving rise to the First Oil Shock that rocked the world. The international companies, anticipating these pressures, had successfully diversified their supply before the shock, bringing in new productive provinces in Alaska, the North Sea, Africa and elsewhere. These deposits were more difficult and costly to exploit, but production was rapidly stepped up when control of the traditional sources was lost. In part that was made possible by great technological advances in everything from seismic surveys to drilling. Geochemistry and better geological understanding made it possible to identify the productive trends, once the essential data had been gathered. The new knowledge showed both where oil was and where it was not, reducing the scope for good surprises. The industry found and produced the expensive and difficult oil from the new provinces at the maximum rate possible, leaving the control of the abundant, cheap and easy oil in the hands of the Middle East OPEC countries. The latter were accordingly forced into a swing role, making up the difference between world demand and what the other countries could produce. It was contrary to normal economic practice and concealed the gradual impact of depletion, growing shortage and rising cost, which would otherwise have alerted us to what was happening. But these new provinces faced the same depletion pattern that had already been demonstrated in the United States. The larger fields, which are found and exploited first, gave a natural discovery peak. Advances in technology and operating efficiency also reduced the time-lag from discovery to the corresponding production peaks. Whereas it took the United States forty years, the North Sea, which is now at peak, did it in just twenty-seven. //cont at http://hubbert.mines.edu/news/Campbell_01-2.pdf _______________________________________________ Marxism-Thaxis mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] To change your options or unsubscribe go to: http://lists.econ.utah.edu/mailman/listinfo/marxism-thaxis
