> > >STRATFOR.COM >Global Intelligence Update >November 5, 1999 > >Chinese Influence on the Rise in Pyongyang > > >Summary > >North Korean special units were called in to quell riots in North >Hamgyong province in mid-October, according to reports in South >Korean and Chinese media this week. The riots came as border >security in North Korea and China was being tightened, and more >attention paid to the status of North Koreans crossing the border >illegally. With Chinese-North Korean ties generally on the mend, >the threat of increased internal instability in North Korea may >lead Beijing to accelerate its assistance to - and influence in - >Pyongyang. > > >Analysis > >A riot broke out Oct. 11 in North Korea's North Hamgyong Province, >which borders both China and Russia, according to Chinese and South >Korean media reports published this week. North Korea mobilized an >elite border guard unit to quash the riots, which took place near >the northwestern border city of Onsong. The special unit responded >with helicopters and ground forces, and followed up with a search >operation to find the leaders of the riot and "outside impure >elements." > >North Korea has long harnessed the fear of social instability to >gain leverage in dealings with other nations. By playing up >outsiders' paranoia that a collapsing regime may resort to any >measure - including launching a suicide attack on South Korea - it >wins economic humanitarian assistance while maintaining its >isolation. [ http://www.stratfor.com/asia/aiuarchive/a981222.htm ] > >But the riot near Onsong suggests that unrest in some outlying >regions of the country may be near the breaking point. This does >not mean that a general uprising against Kim Jong Il's government >is near, but that localized dissatisfaction with the current >economic and political situation could lead to eruptions of >violence, requiring military intervention. Signs of instability - >especially real, not engineered, instability - could win Korea >support from a wary China. > >The riots came amid tightened border security by both North Korea >and China, designed to stem the flow of illegal North Korean >citizens seeking food and medicine across the Tumen River in China. >While many of the North Koreans crossing into China are reportedly >seeking refugee status, both sides oppose calling them refugees out >of fear that granting such status would trigger a massive increase >in the number of North Koreans crossing into China. > >The incident in Onsong seems to be isolated, at least for now. >Potential unrest appears confined to the border areas, where >political and ideological exiles are often sent, and news of the >outside is easier to obtain. With North Korea increasing economic >and social exchanges with other nations to bolster its shrinking >economy, such internal dissatisfaction could spread. > >As North Korea balances its financial distress with the need to >remain insulated from the rest of the world, there are other signs >that the regime's security may be threatened. Kim Jong Il's eldest >son, Kim Jong Nam, has taken a post in the Ministry of Public >Security, an early step toward succeeding his father. The elder >Kim's rise to power following his father Kim Il Sung's death was a >slow process, marked by purges in the government ranks. > >Firmly establishing Kim Yong Nam as his successor could be an >attempt to counter a threat against Kim Jong Il's authority. >Placing his son in a position of public security, tasked with >information gathering and finding dissidents, signals to both the >citizens of North Korea and to potential opponents that the Kim >Dynasty will continue. By emphasizing the dynastic succession >implemented by his father, Kim Jong Il hopes to rekindle public >affection for North Korea's leadership, which has dwindled without >Kim Il Sung's charismatic presence. > >While the signals out of North Korea may be simply more false signs >of imminent collapse, the unrest in the north and potential splits >in Pyongyang suggest the precarious situation may be more than a >carefully crafted diplomatic bargaining tool. A truly destabilized >North Korea poses a threat not only to South Korea and the U.S. >forces there, but also to China, Russia and possibly Japan. While >South Korea, the United States and even to some extent Japan have >accelerated contact with North Korea, it is China that has recently >forged the closest ties. > >China has already been moving to strengthen relations with North >Korea in order to regain leverage against U.S. allies in the >region. While Beijing would benefit strategically from holding the >leash on North Korea's belligerency, it would be threatened by an >out-of-control North Korea. Real signs of North Korean >disintegration could speed up moves to bring Sino-North Korean >cooperation back to a level not seen in decades. China may even >seek to influence or manipulate North Korea's internal politics to >maintain the momentum of strengthening relations and guarantee >North Korean cohesion. > > >(c) 1999, Stratfor, Inc. >__________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com --- from list [EMAIL PROTECTED] ---
