Rob writes... 

> Well, they might call it a win in the sense that NATO's silly slaughter in
> Yugoslavia got carded as a win, I s'pose.  There, as here, the actual
> military campaign itself soon (and predictably) reached the point of
> publicly apparent untenability, and an intrusion from outside was brought to
> bear.  There, too, negotiations were persistently ruled out until there was
> one.

My take is that the Germans won most. 
> In the terms, as I understand them, that this slaughter was justified (eg.
> to stabilise Dagestan, to rid Russia of allegedly Chechen terrorism,
> possibly to protect important oil sources, and mebbe to nip Muslem
> seccessionism in the bud), this adventure is a joke, for mine.  I predicted
> intensified instability, impoverishment and blood'n'guts in Yugoslavia in
> April, and I'm predicting it for Russia, Chechnya and Dagestan now.  

What did ya do turn on the tele or look in your cristalball to predict this?

>I also
> predict that, as we have a healthy Serbian military still in place in
> Belgrade, we shall have a healthy Chechen guerilla force in Chechnya a year
> from now (of course, both Serbia and Chechnya have been ruined in the
> process, but that's not what we're talking about).  I also suspect (mebbe
> 'know' is a better word) that there is no tenable exit strategy available to
> Moscow other than some sorta external intervention.  If they're seen to
> flatten Grosny, wave a few bearded heads on pikes about, and then leave
> again - all at their own behest - they're gonna look foolish to the point of
> political untenability, I reckon.  A shattered treasury, a few hundred dead
> Russian boys, and not one initially promulgated objective assured.

The point about the Serbs well taken. However on Chetchenyen I think the whole point 
is hardly wether there is a guerilla there now or next year but what happens in 
Russia. And maybe in western eyes this all looks "foolish" but hardly amongst the 
Russian masses which the present regime has successfuly galvanized over this stuff 
which might be the whole point of the war...


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