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Well the ideology behind ETA, that is Basque Nationalism + "Democratic
popular bottom-up" Socialism + Marxism + Internationalist solidarity
with oppressed nations + Environemntal concerns + Direct Action, still
has many adherents in the Basque Country.

Over the last 30 years, Batasuna's support in the elections (under the
three brands it has used, i.e., Herri Batasuna, Euskal Herritarrok and
EHAK) oscillates around 15% of the total votes, its best result being
the 18.33% achieved in 1990 and the lowest the 10.12% of the total votes
obtained in 2001

If you add to this the 6-8% won by various small offshoots of the Euskal
Arbatzale movement, you end up with around 20-26% of Basques
CONSISTENTLY (whatever the circumstances) in favour of this ideology.

So dismantling the "official ETA" armed wing may not in fact mean the
end of Arbatzale armed attacks. But it is, IMHO, a good idea. They have
tried to by-pass the Basque Parliament by organizing a "grassroots union
of Basque Municipalities" with the support of various local councilors
and union leaders, but the crackdown by the Spanish authorities proved
too much. In Spain, any elected official who refuses to condemn armed
separatism loses his seat. There has long been a lot of pressure put on
the Supreme Council of ETA to disband and let political parties and
unions grouped under the umbrella "EH" movement lead a "political
struggle" against the PNV (the main, conservative Basque party in power
in the Basque Parliament).

But again, I think various breakaway groups will emerge from the
official ETA tree and continue to set off bombs. There is such a
reservoir of die-hard "Arbatzale" activists that this outcome is
inevitable. 

Whether Batasuna can crack the PNV nut and become the greatest political
force in Euskadi remains to be seen. The PArtido Nacional Vasco and its
conservative, pro-clerical, supporters still receives over 50% of the
vote. The PNV is anti-Spanish, in favour of greater autonomy but also
staunchly anti-ETA.


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