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On Aug 1, 2014, at 12:48 AM, Michael Karadjis via Marxism <[email protected]> wrote: > Any comments on this by the Ukraine specialists round here? > > Land for gas: Merkel and Putin discussed secret deal could end Ukraine crisis > > Germany and Russia have been working on a secret plan to broker a peaceful > solution to end international tensions over the Ukraine. > > The Independent can reveal that the peace plan, being worked on by both > Angela Merkel and Vladimir Putin, hinges on two main ambitions: stabilising > the borders of Ukraine and providing the financially troubled country with a > strong economic boost, particularly a new energy agreement ensuring security > of gas supplies. > > More controversially, if Ms Merkel’s deal were to be acceptable to the > Russians, the international community would need to recognise Crimea’s > independence and its annexation by Russia, a move that some members of the > United Nations might find difficult to stomach. I’m no expert, but the reported trade-offs sound credible to me. The West European and Russian capitalists have been consistently pushing their governments in this direction. I’m not so sure Crimea would be a sticking point, as the article suggests. The “international community” never formally recognized the Russian-supported Trans-Dniester Republic which broke away from Moldova in 1990, but it has enjoyed de facto independence ever since. The Russian absorption of Crimea would likewise be tacitly accepted, greased by compensation to the Ukrainian state for the unpaid rent on the Black Sea naval base and the restoration of Russian gas supplies on favourable terms. The Russian-speaking regions of the east who would presumably gain some measure of autonomy are likely to view such a deal more favourably, at least until the full effect of Ukraine’s integration into the EU on their industrial base and livelihoods becomes apparent. The social and democratic aspirations of Ukrainians on both sides of the conflict will be far from realized, and their sacrifices on behalf of their respective oligarchs and demagogues, as is tragically so often the case, will have been in vain. ________________________________________________ Send list submissions to: [email protected] Set your options at: http://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
