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In my visit to Greece a while ago, I had the opportunity to meet with some
Greek economists, including one who has a high position in the Government.
They told me that the exit from the Euro came from Papandreau to frighten
voters about the prospect of a Syriza victory. That was not their
intention.
On Fri, Mar 6, 2015 at 7:39 PM, Dayne Goodwin via Marxism <
marxism@lists.csbs.utah.edu> wrote:
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>
> Opinion: Time for Greece to plan its exodus from the euro
>
> Athens has no leverage in debt negotiations without a 'Plan B'
>
> by Darrell Delamaide, "Political Capital" column
> MarketWatch [Dow Jones subsidiary]
> March 6, 2015
>
> WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Greece must now plan on a way to exit the
> euro if it is to have any chance of staying.
>
> This is not a conundrum; it is the way negotiation works.
>
> The new government of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras was forced to
> backtrack last month on its election pledges to get its foreign debt
> reduced and reverse austerity because it had no plausible alternative
> to European Union intransigence on extending the bailout.
>
> {"The strategy of hoping to achieve radical change within the
> institutional framework of the common currency has come to an end."
> Costas Lapavitsas}
>
> The only viable alternative would be to exit the euro, default on the
> debt and suffer the consequences, and Athens was not ready to do that.
>
> This "Plan B" cannot be a bluff and at this point it is better than
> even odds it will be the plan Greece will have to follow.
>
> Tsipras and his finance minister, Yannis Varoufakis, have so far
> argued in their "Plan A" that Greece can stay in the euro, but pinned
> that belief on Germany and other EU members being reasonable.
>
> Germany -- as well as the European Commission, the European Central
> Bank, and the International Monetary Fund -- made it amply clear in the
> initial round of negotiations that they have no intention of being
> reasonable in the way Tsipras and Varoufakis believe they should.
>
> It was always a fairly delusional assumption that German leaders would
> suddenly see the light and embrace an enlightened Keynesian solution
> to the economic and social crisis in Greece. Berlin and Brussels
> remain pitiless and more convinced than ever of the rightness of their
> destructive neoliberal policies.
>
> The only way Greece can regain its sovereignty -- which is essentially
> what Tsipras's Syriza party pledged to voters in its rise to power --
> is to reclaim its sovereign rights, and especially control of its
> currency and banking system.
>
> The consequences of defaulting on the country's debt would be
> dramatic, but relatively short-lived compared to the guaranteed
> long-term misery of the EU austerity program.
>
> <
> http://www.marketwatch.com/story/time-for-greece-to-plan-its-exodus-from-the-euro-2015-03-06
> >
>
>
> Greece: the Rocky Road Ahead
> by Cillian Doyle
> Counterpunch
> March 6, 2014
> . . .
> So when Syriza and its creditors sit down around the table they will
> need to show that this time they are determined to end the condition
> of debt slavery within the Eurozone or without. They will only be able
> to win the kind of debt restructuring that Varoufakis has spoken of if
> they have a viable Grexit strategy which the European establishment
> believes they are prepared to use. Even mainstream figures like Paul
> Krugman have posed the pertinent question 'What freedom of movement
> does a Greek government have if it is not prepared to leave the
> Eurozone?
>
> There are huge risks involved in this, something that the Syriza
> leadership will be well aware of. But if they cannot convince or
> coerce their creditors into some kind of debt forgiveness then they
> may figure that the risk of Grexit is worth the reward if the
> alternative is decades of debt and deflation.
>
> So whilst Syriza may never have had a mandate for Grexit, their
> attention must now turn towards winning one.
> . . .
> <http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/03/06/greece-the-rocky-road-ahead>
>
>
> Ending austerity in Greece: time for plan B?
> by Jerome Roos
> ROAR magazine
> February 26, 2015
> . . .
> The most important challenge, in this respect, will not necessarily be
> economic in nature but rather social, political and psychological.
> Before Greece can ever be liberated from its state of debt servitude
> and its plight of permanent austerity, its government will first need
> to be in a position to default on its European creditors and "print"
> its own currency. This will in turn require three things:
>
> First, mass mobilization from below will be essential, both to put
> pressure on Syriza's leadership and to empower the pro-Grexit faction
> inside the party, which is now steadily growing in the wake of last
> week's dramatic retreat. Second, voters will have to abandon their
> aversion towards Grexit and public opinion will have to sway behind a
> much more confrontational approach. To get there, the left and the
> movements will have to embark on a concerted campaign of "popular
> education" to inform the Greek public of the only real options
> available to their country: progressive exit or endless austerity.
>
> Finally, and most importantly, the government would have to be
> meticulously prepared to manage the extremely difficult transition
> period, in which the price of imported goods will skyrocket following
> a sharp devaluation; key commodities like food, petroleum and medicine
> will have to be rationed to deal with sudden scarcity; capital
> controls and border controls will have to be reintroduced to prevent
> catastrophic capital flight; deposits and loan contracts will need to
> be re-denominated into drachma; and the banks will have to be
> nationalized to prevent a complete collapse of the financial system.
>
> All of this will require a degree of radicalization and preparation
> that currently seems both utterly irresponsible and completely
> unrealistic. Yet this is precisely where the brutally anti-democratic
> methods of the Eurozone are pushing Greece today. For five years,
> Greeks have been living in total despair. Desperate times call for
> desperate measures -- and the time for unilateral default and Grexit
> may be approaching faster than most people are willing or able to
> recognize. If the left truly cares about ending austerity, it should
> start preparing for Plan B.
>
> <http://roarmag.org/2015/02/greece-austerity-euro-exit>
>
>
> Why the drachma can't save Greece: Goldman Sachs
> by Leslie Shaffer
> CNBC
> March 3, 2015
> <http://www.cnbc.com/id/102474866>
>
> It's not enough to convince Syriza - the EU must win over the Greek people
> <
> http://www.euromoney.com/Article/3432813/Its-not-enough-to-convince-Syrizathe-EU-must-win-over-the-Greek-people-vtb-sponsored.html
> >
>
> The Greecification of Spanish Politics
> TownHall Finance
> by Mike Shedlock
> March 5, 2015
> <
> http://finance.townhall.com/columnists/mikeshedlock/2015/03/05/the-greecification-of-spanish-politics-n1965999
> >
>
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Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
Chico, CA
95929
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