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Greece is not Ireland – and it’s not just about the economics by Paul Mason Channel 4 News, England, June 8 <http://blogs.channel4.com/paul-mason-blog/greece-ireland-economics/3805> . . . As PM Alexis Tsipras prepares to seek a political solution this week with Angela Merkel and the other EU leaders, the situation is at least clear. The Greek “offer” – a massive climbdown on Syriza’s election programme but not austere enough for Europe – is as far as Syriza can go without losing its ability to get its way in parliament. So unless Merkel and Tsipras broker a delay, or compromise, all objective analyses have to see default as a likelihood at the end of June. Over the weekend there’s been searing criticism of the IMF over its role in this, and for good reason. The IMF’s own economists recognised, two years ago, their method for understanding the impact of austerity on growth had been wrong. . . . But Greeks themselves don’t measure it in GDP figures – they measure it in extra suicides, a falling birthrate, the migration of 100,000 young people abroad, whole streets full of closed shops. Perplexing questions So why did Greece collapse and Ireland survive? . . . The difference is: Greece is an unmodernised capitalism where you can’t impose austerity at this level and hope to modernise at the same time. . . . The problem is, the deep structures of Greek capitalism mean you can only modernise by unpicking things carefully and with consent. A population used to being seen personally by a pharmacist, to getting their drugs on informal credit when they can’t pay, just will not transform itself overnight into a midwest American consumer group. It’s the same with taxes. Hiking VAT sounds like a no-brainer in a country that needs to raise taxes. When finance minister Yanis Varoufakis proposed instead to set a low – 16 per cent – top rate of VAT, on the grounds that it would undermine the culture of evasion, the IMF’s economists reportedly said yes. Somewhere along the line it got hiked to 23 per cent. If the IMF’s negotiators wanted to give the impression their aim is to destroy most of the small businesses that keep Greek capitalism alive, and with it, consent for democracy, they are doing a brilliant job. And that’s what has begun to undermine the faith of those identified as moderate and western-educated in the Syriza leadership. The IMF now seems to be not only acting as if ignorant of its own economics department, but as if Greek society did not exist. The IMF, in a leaked document from its own negotiators in Greece, admitted last month that there is “an inverse relationship” between the reforms being imposed on greece and the “sustainability” of its debt. Having pressured the Europeans for less austerity and more debt write offs, the IMF seems now prepared to walk away from the problem. Its rationale is most probably the pressure it is under from its non-European members. And such pressure may increase if, later this month, the Greek parliament’s own inquiry alleges the IMF lent tens of billions to Greece unlawfully. Having a stake And here’s why the unpoliced riot I sat through is important. What stops ordinary people from joining in, and in fact makes them remonstrate vociferously with the teenagers in balaclavas, is having a stake: a small restaruant, a coffee shop, a small theatre, a street market, a degree and the prospect of a job that pays better than waiting table. It was the lenders who, late last year, decided to load one more dollop of austerity onto a conservative-socialist coalition that could not deliver it. Result: Marxist government. What if they now load one more dollop of austerity onto a Marxist government that cannot deliver it? I think the result will be more riots and more despair among the middle classes. If you wanted to create such mayhem in an economically destroyed country, you would probably not want that country, simultaneously, to enjoy the most pro-Russian political culture in Europe, and be one border away from the Islamic State, with 42,000 Syrian migrants a month landing on its island outposts for good measure. And you would, if you were sensible, stop comparing it to the Republic of Ireland. Young Greek radicals don’t just want power – they want to remake the world by Paul Mason The Guardian, June 7 <http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/07/young-greek-radicals-power-remake-world-paul-mason> At some point, as the Greek crisis lurches to its crescendo, Syriza – the radical left party – will call a meeting of something called a central committee. The term sounds quaint to 21st-century ears: the committee is so big that it has to meet in a cinema. You will not be surprised to learn that the predominant hair colour is grey. These are people who were underground activists in a military dictatorship; some served jail time, and in 1973 many were among the students who defied tanks and destroyed a junta. But they think, speak and act in a way shaped by the hierarchies and power concepts of 50 years ago. The contrast with the left’s mass support base, and membership, is stark. In the average Greek riot, you are surrounded by concert pianists, interior designers, web developers, waitresses and actors in experimental theatre. It is usually 50:50 male and female, and drawn from a demographic as handy with a smartphone as the older generation are with Lenin’s selected works. Like young radicals across Europe and the US, they have been schooled in the ways of the modern middle classes: launching startup businesses, working two or three casual jobs; entrepreneurship, loose living and wild partying are the default way of life. Of course, every generation of radicals looks different from the last one, but the economic and behavioural contrasts that are obvious in Greece are also present in most other countries. And this prompts the question: what do the radicals of this generation want when they win power? The success of Syriza, of Podemos in Spain and even the flood of radicalised young people into the SNP in Scotland makes this no longer an idle question. The most obvious change is that, for the rising generation, identity has replaced ideology. I don’t just mean as in “identity politics”. There is a deeper process going on, whereby a credible identity – a life lived according to a believed truth – has become a more significant badge in politics than a coherent set of ideas. . . . _________________________________________________________ Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm Set your options at: http://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
