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Early this summer, in a piece titled “Is Assad Delusional?”, I argued that whereas the regime was unlikely to reassert control over all of Syria, its alliance with Iran and Russia would eventually end the strategic threat posed by the insurgency without a pro-rebel international intervention. Recent military developments indicate the analysis was probably wrong. It overestimated the regime’s ability to translate critical Iranian and Russian support to lasting gains on the ground.
The article’s pessimism about the insurgents’ prospects was largely based on their inability to effectively respond to Russia’s entry into the war. The Russian intervention brought overwhelming air and artillery capabilities to the regime war effort, along with professional military advisors and planning. Within weeks this combination stabilized faltering regime front lines, and rebel-held Aleppo was nearly encircled. The regime also made substantial progress in subduing the rebel-held Damascus suburbs. The war’s once-critical southern front appears to have gone dormant. As recently as a few weeks ago, pro-regime forces laid siege to Aleppo.
Recently, however, the regime is once again struggling to protect its hard-won positions on two important fronts. First, a coalition of jihadist, Salafist, and mainstream rebel groups broke through regime defenses in southwest Aleppo, breaking the siege on the city’s insurgent-held areas and holding their gains for 28 days against a heavy counterattack. Regime defense apparently succumbed to suicide vehicle bombs and shock attacks. In the past few days, multiple assaults by the Syrian Army, Hizballah, and allied militias finally re-imposed the siege. The Jaish al-Fatah operations room that broke the siege has launched a counterattack and promises to liberate all of Aleppo. Recent regime gains are a setback for the rebels, but the pattern of fighting in the past few days indicate they are fragile.
full: http://warontherocks.com/2016/09/what-i-got-wrong-about-assads-military-prospects/
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