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This may be rather late. Nonetheless; Jeff and David gave good explanations of chance findings (p value and what a 95% probability might really mean). But while raising the issue - they only indirectly discuss 'totality' of evidence. Perhaps these points might assist: 1) the gold standard for therapy studies is the Randomised controlled trial. 2) but you cannot test all by that. For various reasons that even a socialist state cannot overcome, altho' it will be better by far. 3) generally, the gold standard for aetiology - are large observational studies. (Emphasise large). 4) perhaps the real point around which this discussion has revolved is: there is rarely enough evidence to be 100% definite. But the progressive elimination of doubt ( assymptotically closer to 'truth') is only possible through replication. This is close to what jeff and david refer to as 'totality' of evidence. But I think the concept conveys a bit more. It begins to unveil other issues - such as "non-rational" spurs to data production, and interpretation (read scientific greed or ego or pride). See John Ioannides PLOS; his paper on "why most research findings are false" - became the most widely cited paper in medicine and (i think) the natural sciences. On the content area in general, there is little doubt that environmental triggers for cancers may well explain the epidemic proportions of cancers nowadays. But this is not in general, controversial - i believe - even in purely academic circles. The burden of proof is however viewed as half-full or half-empty by different opinions. Hari Kumar _________________________________________________________ Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm Set your options at: http://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
