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If you gave a word association test to the average pro-Assad leftist,
asking them for the first name that pops into their head when they hear
the words "warmongering neocon", they will likely respond "Max Boot". It
is a sign of the unanimity among the Democratic Party and Republican
Party establishments that not a single member advocates "regime change"
today.
Washington Post, March 9, 2018
To save Syrians, let Assad win
By Max Boot
Bashar al-Assad’s ongoing assault on the Damascus suburb of Eastern
Ghouta is a war crime that has already killed more than 900 civilians.
But while it’s easy to condemn this “brutal campaign,” as the White
House has dutifully done, it’s hard to know what to do about it. A
U.N.-brokered cease-fire is being predictably ignored. A small
humanitarian relief convoy finally made it through, but its arrival will
not stop the slaughter.
In 2012, I joined many others in calling for the United States to
enforce a no-fly zone to stop the rain of Assad’s barbaric “barrel
bombs” and to provide aid to the Free Syrian Army to overthrow him. A
lot more people might be alive today if President Barack Obama had
listened, and a strategic and humanitarian disaster might have been
averted. But, although right six years ago, I no longer think that
advice makes sense now. Russia got involved in Syria in 2015, and the
United States can’t attack Russian aircraft without risking a war.
Thanks to Russian and Iranian aid, Assad is no longer on the verge of
defeat. His position is more secure than ever, and it’s only a matter of
time before he reconquers most of Syria.
Using U.S. airpower to aid the embattled people of Ghouta might make us
feel good, but it would not save lives. Even if we could ground Russian
aircraft — a big if — pro-regime forces would simply use artillery and
multiple-launch rocket systems to pulverize the city. U.S. intervention
would only prolong the agony.
The way to save lives, I’ve sadly concluded, is to let Assad win as
quickly as possible. Aleppo was a charnel house in 2016. But now that it
has fallen to Assad’s forces, pictures are circulating of civilians
strolling through its rebuilt public park. It’s terrible that they have
to live under Assad, but at least they’re alive. Tyranny is preferable
to endless and useless war.
I once would have been sympathetic to the plan put forward by American
Enterprise Institute fellow Kenneth Pollack to aid Syrian rebel groups
to bleed the Iranians and Russians. No longer. Such aid makes sense
when, as in Afghanistan in the 1980s, the rebels have a realistic chance
to prevail. It’s not right, however, to use Syrians as cannon fodder in
a great power rivalry when they have no hope of winning.
That’s not to suggest that there is nothing the United States can do. We
can try to bargain with Moscow to restrain Assad’s brutality in return
for an end to U.S. opposition to his regime, and we can maintain the
taboo against the use of weapons of mass destruction. In April,
President Trump launched cruise missiles against a Syrian airfield in
response to a sarin-gas attack by Assad’s forces. This year, there have
been at least seven reports of Assad using chlorine gas. Trump should
launch airstrikes against the responsible Syrian units — as he is
reportedly considering — even though it would do little to ameliorate
the larger horrors of the conflict.
The most important thing the United States can do now is to stand with
our Kurdish and Arab partners in the Syrian Democratic Forces that
liberated northeastern Syria from the Islamic State. The Kurds control
about 25 percent of Syria’s territory, and there is a U.S. military
presence 2,000 strong to aid them and prevent the Islamic State from
returning. The Turkish government is not happy about this. President
Recep Tayyip Erdogan has sent the Turkish army, working with Syrian
allies, to attack the Kurdish-held town of Afrin in northwestern Syria.
Erdogan sees no difference between the Syrian Kurds in the YPG (People’s
Protection Units) and the Turkish Kurds in the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’
Party), whom he has long regarded as domestic subversives and mortal
enemies.
Trump should cut a deal with Erdogan: The YPG will sever all support for
the PKK in return for the Turks pulling back. As long as the YPG sticks
to this bargain, the United States will use its airpower and advisers to
defend the Syrian Kurdish enclave east of the Euphrates River, just as
it committed after the 1991 Gulf War to defend the Iraqi Kurds. Turkey
wasn’t happy with that decision but has learned that it can live with,
and happily trade with, the Kurdish Regional Government.
Leaving Assad in control of three-quarters of Syria will be a bitter
pill to swallow. He is not only a war criminal but also a threat to
Israel — as long as Assad remains in charge, Iran will attempt to
establish military bases in Syria. But Israel can defend itself, and we
missed our best opportunity under Obama to oust Assad. Now we have no
choice but to accept the grim reality — Assad is going to win — while
trying to ameliorate the worst excesses of his murderous reign.
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