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https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-will-announce-plans-to-pull-out-of-iran-nuclear-deal-despite-pleas-from-european-leaders/2018/05/08/4c148252-52ca-11e8-9c91-7dab596e8252_story.html?utm_term=.74b4046ea8c0

This is a bizarre decision for a number of reasons, one of which is that
Iran will see this as a reason not to be subject to the restrictions and
could resume its nuclear program, which they have always maintained to be
lawful and not weaponized anyway. Unless he plans to undermine it by war,
which is unlikely even with Bolton, Pompeo, and others, he's effectively
undermining one of the only tools they had to discourage Iran.

This should be considered informative about the role of the Israel Lobby.
The gist of the argument on the Left that the Israel Lobby or its allies
had no role in, for example, the US invasion of Iraq, was based on the idea
that US policy is always a rational extension of the interests of the
ruling elite, and that the Iraq invasion could be explained through such
rationality.

Of course, there is nothing that has ever suggested that the ruling class
of any state is particularly rational, especially in times of immense
crisis punctuated by geopolitical inequality (such as right after a major
terrorist attack that galvanizes the public against Muslim countries or
regimes with poor relationships to the US). The Trump presidency itself, to
say nothing of the Israel Lobby's ability to influence policy to target
Israel's opponents, are both indicators of how irrational US ruling elites
can be. The end result of that irrationality is drastically overstating
their ability to actually impose policy on the world successfully, whether
it is fighting and then losing a war in Iraq or being unable to enforce an
international agreement to restrict opponents whose influence they have
otherwise failed to deter.

My guess is that the Iranians will be able to get other countries to make
up for any funds they lose through the resumption of sanctions while the US
and Israel isolate themselves further.

Macron suggested it could mean war:
http://www.newsweek.com/macron-trump-could-start-war-iran-nuclear-deal-decision-912339


He's probably wrong. We saw that Trump launched an hour-long missile blitz
against an already war-torn Syria in response to the chemical attacks.
Likewise he has made opposing the Iraq War (or, at least, pretending to)
part of his appeal. His few remaining supporters, despite (or because of?)
being right-wing extremists, are staunch opponents of war. So while it's
not off the table, it probably just means Trump further weakening US
influence, especially as the other JCPOA countries continue to deal with
Iran.

Amith R. Gupta
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