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Naturally, one can not know exactly if such a deal (exchanging Idlib for
North-East Syria) has been struck between Putin and Erdoğan. If this has
been done (which is absolutely possible), it would demonstrate once more
that Turkey does not consider HTS as its agent (something which has been
claimed all too long by the Öcalanists).
Such a Turkish sell-out of Idlib would be not surprising since the HTS
leadership has sharply denounced those rebels who participate in the
Turkish operations. They have declared that both sides – Turkey and YPG
– are bad and that they have a neutral position in this conflict. It is
understandable if Ankara wants Assad and Putin to attack a HTS-dominated
Idlib.
However, one should add two points on this:
1) The HTS has certainly skillfully exploited a difficult situation of
the Turkish army as the latter is currently massively rallying its
forces at the South-Eastern border in order to attack the YPG. For this
reason it was objectively difficult for Turkey to support its allies
(Zenki, Ahrar, NLF, FSA, …) in Idlib during the recent clashes with HTS.
(By the way: what a powerful demonstration of the extreme stupidity of
these rebel factions to trust Ankara and to sell themselves to serve as
Turkish proxies!)
2) The whole development also demonstrates that the pro-Turkish factions
obviously did not have any significant strength by themselves, i.e.
without a Turkish military support. Particularly Zenki has been strongly
discredited among the population.
It seems, and this has also been noted by several observers, that HTS
hopes to repeat in Idlib what Hamas did in Gaza. However, I am rather
skeptical if this is possible.
In general, it seems more likely to me that Assad/Russia will attack
Idlib with full force in the near future. However, the Orange Man in the
White House and the massive inner contradictions in the Middle East
policy of declining U.S. imperialism create many unpredictable
possibilities for the future development of the war in Syria.
Am 11.01.2019 um 01:54 schrieb Chris Slee:
The rapid takeover of Idlib province by HTS may be the result of a
deal between Turkey and Russia, according to one commentator cited by
Kurdistan 24:
http://www.kurdistan24.net/en/news/404a7deb-ef97-43c2-a529-7ddfc4ac5e22
'According to Elizabeth Tsurkov, a Research Fellow who specializes in
Syria at the Forum for Regional Thinking, an Israeli think-tank,the
HTS takeover makes it easier for Russia and Damascus to justify an
assault on the province....
'The HTS’ swift takeover of Idlib from Turkish-backed groups has
surprised many on the ground.
' “It is a mystery to me what Ankara is thinking. They invested
heavily in supporting Ahrar al-Sham, Faylaq al-Sham, and the National
Liberation Front, only to stand idly by and see them wiped out by
HTS,” Tsurkov said.
'Some Turkish-backed rebel groups and civilians believe that Ankara
may have allowed the “HTS to take over Idlib to justify [a] regime
offensive on the area in return for Russian permission to take Manbij
and Kurdish areas,” she added.''
------------------------------------------------------------------------
*From:* Marxism <marxism-boun...@lists.csbs.utah.edu> on behalf of
RKOB via Marxism <marxism@lists.csbs.utah.edu>
*Sent:* Thursday, 10 January 2019 6:46 PM
*To:* Chris Slee
*Subject:* [Marxism] Syria: Is the Reactionary Sochi Deal Collapsing?
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https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/syria-is-the-reactionary-sochi-deal-collapsing/
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