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WSJ, March 27, 2019
Iran Moves to Firm Its Influence in Syria
by Raja Abdulrahim and Benoit Faucon
MUHAYMIDA, Syria -- In Islamic State's former eastern Syrian stronghold,
Iran is parlaying its military and economic might into a lasting foothold.
On the heels of an Iranian military intervention that has helped bring
President Bashar al-Assad to the edge of victory in Syria's eight-year
war, Tehran is moving to cement its long-term influence in Syria by
cultivating goodwill and winning converts to the Shiite Muslim sect.
To Syrians battered by war, Iran is offering cash, food, Iranian ID
cards, public services and free education.
"The goal is to re-create the Persian empire," said Muneer al-Khalaf, a
member of the City Council of Raqqa, Islamic State's once de facto capital.
Iran's hearts-and-minds campaign undermines efforts by the U.S., Israel
and Arab states to roll back Tehran's influence and force it out of
Syria. It also comes as President Trump plans to shrink the U.S.
military footprint in the country -- currently more than 2,000 troops --
after the battle to eliminate Islamic State-held territory was declared
over on Saturday.
U.S. officials said they aren't abandoning efforts to check Iran's
activities in Syria. The U.S. plans to focus its intelligence gathering
efforts on countering Tehran's strategy of creating a land corridor from
Iran through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon to help funnel weapons and fighters
to its regional allies.
Iran's influence campaign is aimed at Syria's majority Sunni Muslim
population -- including in some former Islamic State strongholds -- that
extends from the eastern Deir Ezzour province to the country's western
border with Lebanon.
The wooing of locals is evident in major cities like Albukamal, near the
Iraqi border. There, from a Syrian police station now controlled by
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps., or IRGC, Iranian forces
distribute food and household items to the city's needy, according to a
24-year-old male resident from the nearby village of Jalaa.
Along with the charity come offers to join the ranks of the Iranian
militia and convert to the Shiite sect of the Islamic faith, he said. In
return for enlisting, the men are promised a guard corps ID card --
allowing them to cross checkpoints without hassle -- and $200 a month.
"From every family you find one or two people who have become Shiite,"
he said. "They say they do it so they can find jobs or they become
Shiite so they can walk and no one bothers them."
To incentivize Arab tribesmen in areas formerly controlled by Islamic
State to convert to Shiism, Iran is granting cash subsidies, providing
public services and free education, according to residents, a U.S.
official and a person familiar with U.S. intelligence operations in the
region.
In cities and villages across the country's east and in parts of central
Syria, the Iranian militia has taken over mosques and is sounding the
Shiite call to prayer from the minarets. They set up shrines in places
with religious historical significance, bought real estate under a
contested property law, and opened Persian-language schools.
"If you're a student, they offer a scholarship. If you're poor, they
give you aid," said an aid worker in Qamishli, in northeast Syria.
"Whatever your need is they fill it, just so you become Shiite."
The Syrian government didn't respond to requests to comment.
But for Mr. Assad, who belongs to the Alawite sect, an offshoot of
Shiite Islam, Iran's conversion and resettlement campaign is less about
tipping the sectarian scales and more about settling its debt to one of
its main military backers in the country's conflict.
"For Assad, it's a way to repay the Iranians and to make sure they won't
let them down," said the person involved in U.S. intelligence operations
in the region.
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Ghasemi said his country's
humanitarian efforts have no ulterior motive. "No one seeks to carry out
religious propaganda and creating religious conflicts," he said. "Iran's
efforts are fully in line with creating a peaceful climate necessary for
calm and helping these people for their most basic needs."
Residents from Deir Ezzour province liken Iran's strategy of wooing the
younger generation to the same tactics of indoctrination once used by
Islamic State.
"Just like ISIS gave religious lessons to children after prayers, they
are doing the same thing," said a father of two school-aged children,
who said his village is now under control of Iranian militias.
Many of his family and friends have converted to the Shiite sect of
Islam from the Sunni sect largely for access to jobs or for protection,
the father said. He is living here in Muhaymida, a few miles from his
own village, and is trying to avoid having to move back.
"If America withdraws [from Syria], I will have to return home. Where
else am I going to go?" he said. After a pause, he added: "I will
probably become Shiite."
Iran's campaign of influence goes far beyond a pay-for-pray scheme.
As Mr. Assad's regime struggles to provide basic services in areas it
has recaptured, the Iranians and their affiliated militias and charities
have filled the void. The Hussein Organization, an Iranian charity, has
brought in generators and water pumps and distributed food and school
supplies in cities and villages in Deir Ezzour, said a security analyst
consulting with the U.S. government on eastern Syria.
Iran's campaign has mostly targeted areas that fall along parts of Syria
where Tehran has sought to establish military supply lines, the "land
bridge" between Iran and Lebanon, said Hanin Ghaddar, a fellow at the
Washington Institute, a D.C.-based think tank.
"This is their only way to keep influence in case they are forced to
withdraw [militarily]," Ms. Ghaddar said.
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