On Sun, Sep 06, 2009 at 08:39:16PM +0200, Jeff wrote: > > I think the discussion of such "shortages" has to do with the short-term > price fluctuations that may concern industry and speculators, but the > specter of any one country (or even a few countries) having long-term > control of one essential resource doesn't seem like a real problem. They > would find alternatives if and when they had to.
Yes, but to do so can require a decade or more. > Note that the > proportion you just gave of 1 ppm of gold in the ore they mine, is much > lower than the 38 ppm of neodymium over the entire earth (not to mention > its abundance where they actually mine it), and the yearly production > (again according to Wikipedia) is only 7000 tons (but surely rising rapidly). > You learn something everyday. Thanks. > Also, there may be a semantic confusion involved. Neodymium is classified > as a "rare earth" according to its position on the periodic chart, but that > is just the name for elements of atomic number 57 to 71. It isn't nearly as > rare as gold or platinum. Its production being dominated by China doesn't > seem to be of long-term significance, as far as I can tell, and it > certainly isn't facing any "peak" in production due to depletion. > As Sartesian noted, the peak can come at any point. It cannot be known to have occurred unless the output in the last period exceed all the existing [not necessarily known] supply. Even then, you can redefine the peak by measuring it in terms of output per second rather than output per year. But a peak will occur nonetheless. I guess with all the baggage associated with peak, I could have used another term. -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail michael at ecst.csuchico.edu michaelperelman.wordpress.com ________________________________________________ YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. Send list submissions to: [email protected] Set your options at: http://lists.econ.utah.edu/mailman/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
