Thomas Bias writes:

> The Fourth International was launched to combat Stalinism and social
> democracy in the working class, with the belief that without doing so
> socialist revolution was not possible.
====================================
It's a little more complicated than that. The Trotskyists had been
combatting social democracy and Stalinism within the international working
class for more than a decade prior to the formation of the Fourth
International, but as open or closed factions within these parties and the
organizations they controlled. They chose not to pronounce themselves an
independent party under their own banner because they understood they did
not have the forces to warrant that status and that appeals to the working
class to consider their small band as an alternative to the CP's and SP's
would be met with derision, further contributing to their isolation.

However, when it became clear that they could not reform these parties from
within, they decided in 1938 to proclaim the Fourth International,
justifying the decision mostly on the basis of future expectations - that
the coming world war was certain to produce the conditions for the triumph
of the infant international "party" over both capitalism and Stalinism.

As the FI's founding document put it: "At the beginning of the war the
sections of the Fourth International will inevitably feel themselves
isolated...However, the devastation and misery brought about by the new war,
which in the first months will far outstrip the bloody horrors of 1914-18
will quickly prove sobering. The discontents of the masses and their revolt
will grow by leaps and bounds. The sections of the Fourth International will
be found at the head of the revolutionary tide. The program of transitional
demands will gain burning actuality. The problem of the conquest of power by
the proletariat will loom in full stature." (The death agony of capitalism
and the tasks of the Fourth International"
http://www.marxists.org/archive/trotsky/1938/tp/tp-text.htm#op)

Trotsky was even more emphatic at an SWP meeting to celebrate the founding
of the FI. "During the next ten years", he forecast, "the program of the
Fourth International will become the guide of millions and these
revolutionary millions will know how to storm earth and heaven." ("On the
Founding of the Fourth International"
http://www.marx.org/archive/trotsky/1938/10/foundfi.htm)

That he well understood the contingent basis for the formation of the new
party was evident in his remarks a year later, at the outbreak of WWII in
September, 1939, and less than a year before his assassination in Mexico,
when he ruminated on "the present war and the fate of modern society":

"By the very march of events this question is now posed very concretely. The
second world war has begun. It attests incontrovertibly to the fact that
society can no longer live on the basis of capitalism. Thereby it subjects
the proletariat to a new and perhaps decisive test.

"If this war provokes, as we firmly believe, a proletarian revolution, it
must inevitably lead to the overthrow of the bureaucracy in the USSR and
regeneration of Soviet democracy on a far higher economic and cultural basis
than in 1918...If, however, it is conceded that the present war will provoke
not revolution but a decline of the proletariat, then there remains another
alternative: the further decay of monopoly capitalism, its further fusion
with the state and the replacement of democracy wherever it still remained
by a totalitarian regime..An analogous result might occur in the event that
the proletariat of advanced capitalist countries, having conquered power,
should prove incapable of holding it and surrender it, as in the USSR, to a
privileged bureaucracy. Then we would be compelled to acknowledge that the
reason for the bureaucratic relapse is rooted not in the backwardness of the
country and not in the imperialist environment but in the congenital
incapacity of the proletariat to become a ruling class. Then it would be
necessary in retrospect to establish that in its fundamental traits the
present USSR was the precursor of a new exploiting régime on an
international scale.

"...The historic alternative, carried to the end, is as follows: either the
Stalin régime is an abhorrent relapse in the process of transforming
bourgeois society into a socialist society, or the Stalin régime is the
first stage of a new exploiting society. If the second prognosis proves to
be correct, then, of course, the bureaucracy will become a new exploiting
class. However onerous the second perspective may be, if the world
proletariat should actually prove incapable of fulfilling the mission placed
upon it by the course of development, nothing else would remain except
openly to recognize that the socialist program based on the internal
contradictions of capitalist society, ended as a Utopia." ("The USSR in War"
http://www.marxists.org/archive/trotsky/1939/09/ussr-war.htm)

We'll never know whether and how Trotsky might have revised his shattered
perspectives and the tiny movement's pretense of being an international
party (or thinly-disguised versions of same) had he lived to see the outcome
of the war, but his followers chose to ignore the faulty premises which had
given birth to the FI  and in their various rising and falling incarnations
have all largely operated as on the margins of political life ever since.




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