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Yesterday, Sandia asked for comments on the WSJ on the contraction in the Venezuelan economy. I think it, the contraction, is real and I don't see the economic problems being resolved by simple policy changes. About a year ago, CEPR-- Dean Baker et al-- produced a "don't worry" forecast for the Venezuelan economy despite the fall in oil prices. The CEPR pinned its forecast on trade balances. There's much more to capital's ups and downs than trade balances-- first and foremost is the fact that with the official exchange rate of the bolivar being so much higher than the street exchange rate, fewer dollars are available for companies to utilize for the payment of imports necessary for manufacturing. Declining oil revenues exacerbate the situation. However, call me suspicious and cynical, but part of me [maybe the best part] is convinced that a portion of the impact on manufacturing is inflated by the bourgeoisie as a sort of a "owners' strike," in order to disorganize the workers, prevent actions on the shop floor, etc. What we have here is, in part, the equivalent of a lock-out, but on a nationwide scale. So.. the economy as such can't or won't be rescued by changes in fiscal policy, social spending, etc, because it's no longer an economy as such-- but the field for the conscious battle of classes. ________________________________________________ Send list submissions to: [email protected] Set your options at: http://lists.econ.utah.edu/mailman/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
