====================================================================== Rule #1: YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. ======================================================================
On 1/22/10 8:17 PM, Paula wrote: > 'India turns up heat over 'Glaciergate' > http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/LA21Df05.html > perhaps Paula or others would like to mull over the details; from the introduction at http://web.hwr.arizona.edu/~gleonard/2009Dec-FallAGU-Soot-PressConference-Backgrounder-Kargel.pdf "An expert team has been assembled to build the case and buttress statements by Kargel that the glaciers will not disappear by 2035, but that they are melting rapidly in some areas and responding differently to climate change in other areas of the Himalaya/Hindu Kush (including some glacier advances)." pages 39-43 have a summary of the issues. on page 41 they critique the India's Ministry of Environment and Forests report on the Himalayan glaciers: "A discussion paper of the Indian Ministry of Environment and Forests speculates that observed fluctuations of large Himalayan glaciers may be in response to the climate of as long as 6,000-15,000 years ago. Glacier response times are obtained in the discussion paper by dividing the length of the glacier by a typical ice velocity. For example, for Siachen Glacier, about 74 km long, an ice velocity of about 5 m a^-1 leads to a response time of 15,000 years. Although some observations in the paper appear to be reasonable and accurate, this speculation about response time is in error and could seriously confuse the media, the general population, and policy makers if not corrected." on page 39: "Many glaciers are rapidly retreating and in eastern Himalaya many glaciers will be much diminished in the next few decades, regardless of carbon emissions, aerosol emissions, and global warming trajectory. These glaciers are already out of equilibrium with existing climate due to late 20thCentury emissions. Further emissions increase disequilibrium. Some glaciers may undergo periods of comparative stabilization of length or even growth in mass. Long-term overall trends across South Asia indicate glacier retreat. Some may simultaneously retreat at low elevation and thicken at high elevation as more precipitation falls due to (1) increased evaporation of the warming sea, (2) shifting convergence of Indian monsoon and Westerlies, and (3) the Elevated Heat Pump. The EHP might shrink some glaciers, but might grow others in special topographic circumstances. Influences of deposited soot/dust also appear important in shrinking glaciers." on page 42: "The near future effect of a sharp increase in melting rate of glaciers is to increase water supplies. Sometime this century, as the lowest elevation parts of glaciers melt and disappear, the melt rate will decrease, and the decrease of this source of water will decrease supplies. However, that may be balanced or exceeded by increased overall precipitation related to the warming sea surface. The NASA press release’s proposed “Elevated Heat Pump” effect, if validated by further research, would tend to shift precipitation from the Indian peninsula northward to the Himalaya and Tibet. It is not immediately clear whether in some areas this influence might not actually slow down the shrinkage of glaciers due to enhanced snowfall." a letter from this group appears in Science: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/eletters/326/5955/924#12949 Les ________________________________________________ Send list submissions to: [email protected] Set your options at: http://lists.econ.utah.edu/mailman/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
