====================================================================== Rule #1: YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. ======================================================================
According to the Kondratiev wave model, espoused by some Marxists (including Mandel, whom I greatly admire), major technological advances are developed during the second harmonic (second third) of the downturn cycle and then become the motors of the next upswing cycle. They are born out of necessity : capitalism is forced to find new ways of increasing productivity. Which would mean that solar energy would become the Saviour of capitalism around the years 2027, due to forced fixed investment by government agencies. But I still doubt that this will amount to a revolution in production. Many theorists of the K-cycle have pointed out that the duration of K-waves is growing shorter and shorter since 1815. All bets are on as to the next technological revolution. Biotechnologies would enable us to live much longer but would not impact production (although it would impact agriculture in a major way). Artificial Intelligence seems more likely to be the next major innovation. Intelligent (that is human-like) machines could take on any job. ________________________________________________ Send list submissions to: [email protected] Set your options at: http://lists.econ.utah.edu/mailman/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
