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I follow from afar the academic debates surrounding Kondratiev cycles,
and efforts to prove -or deny -their existence.
The whole subject of in-depth analysis of economic data from the "Core
Capitalist economies" (US, England, France and Germany) spanning
1810-2010 in search of recurring, "long wave patterns" is both
incredibly complex and yet absolutely fascinating.
I must confess that I don't understand ANY of the stuff I've seen on the
subject. It all centers on different mathematical models that seek to
extract patterns from heaps and heaps of data.
I read articles by supporters of the "gamma reduction method" which
concluded that K-waves didn't exist.
And then I read articles by supporters of the "spectral analysis
method" ("spectral analysis" as I learnt, is a mathematical tool which
has nothing to do with astro-physics). They seem to have conclusively
demonstrated both the existence of 6-11 year Juglar (Business)Cycles, as
well as the existence of Kondratiev (50 year) cycles, and Kitchener
cycles (although they attribute to those a 17 year periodicity and not
the usual 25 year, half-K periodicity) cycles. They also attempt to show
"harmonics" between the business cycle and the K-cycle.
They produce impressive-looking graphs that show trends in amalgamated
economic data, and then launch into discussions of the statistical
significance of variations and trends.
Since I really couldn't tell if a reported trend is statistically
significant or not, I must rest content with perusing such articles,
understanding as much as I can, admiring the graphs (that really do show
50 or so year upswing and downswing long term trends) and going "Oh !
Wow ! Ah ha !"
Now, if someone on this list could explain to me (the perfect layman),
what "mathematical spectral analysis" really means, I'd be really
grateful.
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