(In addition to this article, Richard Seymour's article on Duerte's
popularity adds to a disturbing pattern of working-class support for
right-wing policies. It's behind a paywall but you'll be able to read a
paragraph or two. My advice is to subscribe to Richard's Patreon since
it is great stuff. https://www.patreon.com/posts/death-squad-43976095)
NYT, Nov. 16, 2020
As Brazil’s Covid Crisis Eases, Bolsonaro Sees Rising Popularity
By Ernesto Londoño, Manuela Andreoni and Letícia Casado
RIO DE JANEIRO — President Jair Bolsonaro seemed to be on a political
suicide mission during the early weeks of the coronavirus crisis in Brazil.
As the daily death toll turned Brazil into one of the epicenters of the
pandemic, he openly dismissed the loss of life as inevitable and lashed
out against social distancing. A judge ordered the president to wear a
mask, a measure Mr. Bolsonaro was reluctant to follow, claiming that his
“athletic background” would guarantee a prompt recovery.
With the economy in a tailspin, the far-right president picked fights
with Congress, powerful governors and even some of his most popular
ministers.
His cavalier conduct generated talk of impeachment, of an institutional
breakdown and even of an eventual prosecution at The Hague.
Now, with Brazil’s caseload and death toll down significantly since
peaking in July, Mr. Bolsonaro’s popularity is starting to rise. Yet the
easing of the pandemic came largely because Brazilians did not follow
his lead.
Mr. Bolsonaro’s strengthened standing among the electorate stands in
contrast to other leaders in the region who heeded the scientific
consensus about lockdowns, social distancing and masks, and have seen
their popularity decline.
Feeling emboldened, Mr. Bolsonaro chided the press last week for
continuing to focus on the pandemic, which has killed more than 163,000
people in Brazil.
“I regret the deaths, but we need to be done with this thing,” an
exasperated Mr. Bolsonaro said during a Nov. 10 event at the
presidential palace. “We need to stop being a country of sissies.”
Far from facing impeachment, Mr. Bolsonaro — who has always been a
deeply polarizing figure in Brazil — now has his highest approval rates
since taking office in January 2019. While roughly a third of Brazil’s
electorate sided with him back in May, that figure rose to 40 percent in
September.
In neighboring Argentina, by comparison, President Alberto Fernández,
who imposed among the strictest lockdowns in the world, saw his approval
rate crash from 57 percent in March to 37 percent last month. President
Sebastián Piñera of Chile and Iván Duque of Colombia have also faced
falling approval ratings after bumps of support early in the pandemic.
Mr. Bolsonaro’s rising political fortunes came as Brazilians adhered to
mask wearing guidelines and quarantine measures — despite his open
hostility to them — that eased the severity of the virus. Warmer
weather, which allowed people to spend less time indoors, further
reduced the contagion.
The effects of business shutdowns and quarantines were softened by a
generous cash assistance program Congress had passed. Mr. Bolsonaro also
has claimed credit for that outcome, even though he had initially
favored significantly smaller handouts.
Jairo Nicolau, a political scientist who recently published a book about
Brazil’s political rightward shift, said Mr. Bolsonaro appeared to be
hopelessly isolated when the virus was ripping through the country
starting in March.
But his political instincts and tactics have often been underestimated,
Mr. Nicolau argued. And like President Trump, he said, Mr. Bolsonaro has
managed to bypass mainstream press outlets to reach his base of supporters.
“Bolsonaro has a very loyal electorate, quite similar to Trump’s, and
has forged a strong emotional bond with them,” he said. “I don’t think
that Bolsonaro is a great strategic thinker, but he has demonstrated a
kind of intelligence, an ability to capture people’s mood in any given
moment, and play it right. He is no fool.”
As Mr. Bolsonaro was arguing that quarantines would do more harm than
good, promoting an anti-malaria pill as a miracle cure for the
coronavirus and running around the capital without wearing a mask,
lawmakers in Congress were debating the size of an emergency assistance
package.
Mr. Bolsonaro’s administration initially took the position that the
government should provide no more than about $37 per month in cash
payments. Lawmakers across the political spectrum called that sum
woefully insufficient for Brazilians who were dealing with business
shutdowns amid quarantine measures imposed by governors.
But when Congress approved a cash benefit three times higher than the
sum Mr. Bolsonaro had proposed, the president presented it as a gesture
from his government and hailed it as “the biggest aid program for the
neediest in the world!”
Djamila Ribeiro, a political philosopher, said Mr. Bolsonaro did not
deserve credit for the popular assistance program, which led to a
significant reduction in poverty.
“Yet people think it was the president’s doing, not that it was the
result of a fight that was waged in Congress,” she said. “Many people
don’t understand who has prerogative over what.”
Mr. Bolsonaro’s office did not respond to questions for this article. In
a recent interview, Vice President Hamilton Mourão said the government
could have done a better job providing guidelines on prevention measures
early in the pandemic. But he argued that much of the criticism the
government received for its handling of the pandemic was “politicized”
and that some of the most dire predictions did not come to pass.
“The health system was able to cope efficiently,” he said. “There were
fears that people would end up dying in hospital hallways and that
people would die on the streets and that never happened.”
Experts said Mr. Bolsonaro’s surprising political strength might be
temporary. In municipal elections held Sunday, several of the candidates
he backed did poorly. He faces formidable challenges, including a
corruption investigation targeting one of his sons and other relatives,
the looming end of cash payments that have kept Brazilians afloat as the
economy contracts, and the pandemic continues to kill hundreds of
Brazilians per day.
Dr. Fátima Marinho, an epidemiologist at Vital Strategies, a global
public health organization, said that while Brazil had so far avoided a
new wave of cases, a smattering of upticks in certain states were cause
for concern.
“All the models point to a reduction,” she said. “But we’re anticipating
problems in certain cases as we start to see very concrete signs” of a
resurgence.
Manaus, the capital of the state of Amazonas in the north, is among the
regions where the virus appeared to be under control, but hospitals are
seeing a new influx of patients.
Dr. Marinho said the trouble spots were in parts of the country where
many people resumed their normal routines and began throwing weddings
and birthday parties again.
“The virus began circulating again and that led to new
hospitalizations,” she said.
Eager to change the subject, Mr. Bolsonaro this week turned his
attention to the American presidential election. Mr. Bolsonaro, who
openly rooted for Mr. Trump, whom he idolizes, is among the few leaders
in the region that has not congratulated President-elect Joseph. R.
Biden Jr. or even acknowledged his victory.
The Brazilian president and Mr. Biden have traded barbs over Brazil’s
environmental policy and the future of the Amazon, which has experienced
a rise in deforestation on Mr. Bolsonaro’s watch. During a debate, Mr.
Biden warned that Brazil would face economic consequences if it doesn’t
rein in the destruction of the rainforest. His campaign plan on climate
change promised to “name and shame global climate outlaws.”
Mr. Bolsonaro has signaled little interest in striking a more cordial
tone with the incoming American president. During a speech, he said his
country would give diplomacy a try to fend off American plans for the
Amazon. But failing that, he said, Brazil would respond with “gunpowder.”
Amy Erica Smith, a political scientist at Iowa State University who
studies Brazil, said that at first glance Mr. Bolsonaro’s saber rattling
against Mr. Biden might seem ludicrous. But suspicion about foreign
conspiracies to control the Amazon have deep roots in Brazil, and Mr.
Bolsonaro’s call to arms may resonate with many of his countrymen, she said.
“Over time, he has managed to sway public opinion in his favor,” Ms
Smith said. “His confrontation with Biden could work, especially if
Biden manages it badly.”
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
Groups.io Links: You receive all messages sent to this group.
View/Reply Online (#3632): https://groups.io/g/marxmail/message/3632
Mute This Topic: https://groups.io/mt/78316552/21656
-=-=-
POSTING RULES & NOTES
#1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message.
#2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived.
#3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern.
-=-=-
Group Owner: [email protected]
Unsubscribe: https://groups.io/g/marxmail/leave/8674936/1316126222/xyzzy
[[email protected]]
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
