But this will be no V-shaped recovery, which means a return to previous
levels of national output, employment and investment. As I have just
argued above, by the end of 2021, most major economies (China excepted)
will still have levels of output etc below that at the beginning of
2020. Indeed, most forecasts by the likes of the IMF, World Bank and
the OECD(as I have recorded in previous posts
<https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2020/04/13/the-post-pandemic-slump/>)
do not expect the major economies to return to pre-COVID levels before
the end of 2022 and many will never catch up to the previous trend
growth (which was already weak). That’s why I call the shape of this
global ‘recovery’ a reverse square root, where the new trend growth in
output, investment and profitability will remain below the previous
trend growth rate.
https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2021/01/02/forecast-for-2021/
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