Term Limits? Not for Vietnam’s Hard-Line Communist Leader
Nguyen Phu Trong, 76, was named to a third term in office as party
leaders were unable to reach consensus on a successor. The reappointment
may have put off a transition to more pragmatic leadership.
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Nguyen Phu Trong, Vietnam’s top leader, at the Communist Party congress
in Hanoi on Monday.
Nguyen Phu Trong, Vietnam’s top leader, at the Communist Party congress
in Hanoi on Monday.Credit...Minh Hoang/Associated Press
Richard C. Paddock <https://www.nytimes.com/by/richard-c-paddock>
ByRichard C. Paddock <https://www.nytimes.com/by/richard-c-paddock>
* NYT, Feb. 1, 2021
BANGKOK — Under the rules of Vietnam’s Communist Party, its chief is to
step aside at age 65 or after two terms. The country’s dogmatic leader,
Nguyen Phu Trong, would not qualify for reappointment on either count.
But that didn’t prevent the party from cementing his rule as it
concluded its once-every-five-years congress on Monday, giving him a
third term in an effort to project unity and hold off more pragmatic
challengers.
Mr. Trong, 76, in frail health after 10 years at the party’s helm, was
reappointed as general secretary in one of the world’s few remaining
communist dictatorships. Known for his conservative ideological stance,
Mr. Trong has made fighting high-level corruption a priority, and he has
presided at a time of sustained economic growth and national success in
containing the coronavirus.
Under his leadership, Vietnam is expected to maintain a foreign policy
of balancing Chinese and American interests, while keeping the party’s
grip at home by continuing to suppress dissent through the imposition of
long prison sentences.
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“The key message is the party will cling to power at all costs,” said
Alexander Vuving, a professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific
Center for Security Studies in Honolulu. “I don’t expect any big change
in the direction of Vietnam foreign policy or economic policy in the
next five years.”
Vietnam’s Communist Party governs the nation of nearly 100 million
people and has ruled for more than 45 years since reunification.
Leadership of the one-party state is split among three positions: the
party chief, a president who serves as head of state and a prime
minister who runs the government. Since 2018, Mr. Trong has served as
both party leader and president.
The party promotes a version of state capitalism that propelled Vietnam
to economic growth of 2.91 percent last year despite the severe
headwinds of the coronavirus pandemic. That was down from more than 7
percent the previous two years but among the highest growth rates in the
world.
Vietnam has been among the most successful nations in containing the
coronavirus, with strict border controls, mask-wearing, contact tracing
and isolation of infected people. Before a recent outbreak, it had gone
nearly two months without detecting a case of local transmission, and it
has reported only 1,817 cases and 35 deaths.
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A new study by the independent Lowy Institute in Australia ranked
Vietnam second in the world behind New Zealand in handling the
pandemic’s first nine months.
ImageThe once-every-five-years congress concluded on Monday, a day
early, so officials could deal with a coronovirus outbreak.
The once-every-five-years congress concluded on Monday, a day early, so
officials could deal with a coronovirus outbreak.Credit...Vietnam News
Agency, via Reuters
Vietnam maintains strong but occasionally testy relations with its giant
communist neighbor to the north, which is seeking to expand its
influence in the South China Sea. Analysts predict that Vietnam’s
relations with China will remain robust but that Vietnam will continue
seeking improved ties with the United States to counter China’s growing
influence in the region.
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Granting Mr. Trong a third five-year term to handle these issues as
general secretary meant going against the party’s own rules limiting him
to two terms in office and waiving the age limit for him for the third time.
“The party wants to project an image of unity, solidarity and strength
so that it could prevent internal fighting among various factions,” said
Tuong Vu, an expert on modern Vietnamese history and politics at the
University of Oregon.
Mr. Trong represents a conservative Marxist-Leninist faction within the
party, which has come under increasing pressure from more pragmatic
Communist leaders of various factions.
He had chosen a favored subordinate as his designated successor, but the
party rejected his nominee. Mr. Trong chose to stay on as general
secretary rather than let the leader of a rival faction accede to the
top post.
“Basically, it signifies to me the failure of the party chief,” Mr.
Vuving said. “He needed to pass the baton to another conservative
candidate, but his choice was not popular among the Central Committee
members.”
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Mr. Vuving predicted that the next leader of Vietnam would be less
doctrinaire than Mr. Trong, as the leaders of more pragmatic factions in
senior posts continue vying to succeed him.
“He is the last conservative to become general secretary,” Mr. Vuving
said, calling Mr. Trong “a transitional leader.”
“It will loosen up after he is gone,” he said.
The weeklong party congress in Hanoi, a much-anticipated ritual, ended
Monday, a day early, as many members left to deal with a new coronavirus
outbreak in the northeastern part of the country.
The rash of new cases, which could include patients with the more
contagious variants found in Britain and South Africa, is the most
serious yet for Vietnam. In the last four days, it has reported 266 new
infections.
Image
Coronavirus testing at the site of the party congress.
Coronavirus testing at the site of the party congress.Credit...Luong
Thai Linh/EPA, via Shutterstock
But Vietnam has reaped the economic benefits of its overall success
against the pandemic. It is benefiting froma shift in manufacturing from
China
<https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/30/technology/trump-trade-war-vietnam.html>to
other countries as large international companies seek to diversify their
operations and avoid American tariffs. Foxconn, for example, is building
a $270 million plant toassemble Apple phones and laptops in Vietnam
<https://www.reuters.com/article/us-foxconn-vietnam-apple-exclusive-idUSKBN2860VN>.
“Even though they are a Communist Party, and very conservative in
Marxism-Leninism, in economic policy they are an eager globalizer,” Mr.
Vuving said.
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The government maintains power in part by imposing draconian prison
terms on journalists and critics who speak out against it. In the months
leading up to the party congress, it carried out a harsh crackdown.
In January,three journalists
<https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/05/world/asia/vietnam-journalists-prison-sentence.html>—
including Pham Chi Dung, the founder of the Independent Journalists
Association of Vietnam — were sentenced to prison terms ranging from 11
to 15 years. Another prominent journalist, Pham Doan Trong, was arrested
in October on charges of making and disseminating propaganda. Shefaces
up to 20 years in prison
<https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/14/world/asia/vietnam-pham-doan-trang-arrest.html>.
Phil Robertson, the deputy Asia director for Human Rights Watch, said he
foresaw no end to the suppression of free speech with Mr. Trong
remaining in power.
“The re-election of hard-liner Nguyen Phu Trong means the ruling
Communist Party is doubling down on its repression of proponents of
greater democracy and human rights in Vietnam,” he said. “This congress
shows just how little political reform is possible in today’s Vietnam,
which continues to be one of the most authoritarian governments in
Southeast Asia.”
In addition to serving as party chief, Mr. Trong assumed the presidency
in 2018 with the death of the incumbent,Tran Dai Quang
<https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/obituaries/tran-dai-quang-dead.html>.
Mr. Trong is expected to relinquish the presidency later this year when
the rubber-stamp National Assembly ratifies the new top government
leaders chosen by the party.
Image
A banner in Hanoi welcoming the congress.
A banner in Hanoi welcoming the congress.Credit...Thanh Hue/Reuters
Under that scenario, the current prime minister, Nguyen Xuan Phuc, 66,
who lost his bid to become party general secretary, will become
president, a post that is higher in prestige but has less power than the
prime minister.
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Mr. Phuc, who is considered more pragmatic than Mr. Trong, compiled a
largely successful record but could not muster enough support in part
because he is from southern Vietnam. Northerners have long dominated top
leadership positions.
Mr. Trong, who appears to walk with some difficulty and is said to have
suffered a stroke, neverthelessdelivered a 75-minute address
<https://www.reuters.com/article/us-vietnam-politics-congress-idUSKBN29V0EM>on
the opening day of the congress in which he praised the country’s
economic development and control of the coronavirus.
There is no formal process for filling his post should he leave office
before his five-year term ends, but the Central Committee would be
expected to pick a new general secretary from among the senior leaders.
“That might create a crisis because of all the uncertainties surrounding
that situation,” Mr. Vu said.
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