Best regards, Andrew Stewart
Begin forwarded message: > From: H-Net Staff via H-REVIEW <[email protected]> > Date: March 12, 2021 at 9:55:19 AM EST > To: [email protected] > Cc: H-Net Staff <[email protected]> > Subject: H-Net Review [H-Luso-Africa]: Seibert on das Neves de Sousa, 'São > Tomé e Príncipe como um Gateway Regional: Estratégia para um desenvolvimento > sustentável' > Reply-To: [email protected] > > Maria das Neves de Sousa. São Tomé e Príncipe como um Gateway > Regional: Estratégia para um desenvolvimento sustentável. Lisbon > Instituto Superior de Ciências Sociais e Políticas (ISCSP), 2020. > 324 pp. EUR 18.33 (paper), ISBN 978-989-646-142-3. > > Reviewed by Gerhard Seibert (Centro de Estudos Internacionais (CEI, > ex-CEA), ISCTE - Instituto Universitário de Lisboa) > Published on H-Luso-Africa (March, 2021) > Commissioned by Philip J. Havik > > This book is based upon Maria das Neves de Sousa's homonymous PhD > thesis in social sciences in the area of socioeconomic development, > which she defended at the Instituto Superior de Ciências Sociais e > Políticos (ISCSP)in Lisbon in 2017. The author is a Santomean > economist with a long and impressive professional and political > career in her country. She served as São Tomé and Príncipe (STP)'s > first female prime minister (2002-04) and ran twice for the > presidency, in 2011 and 2016, albeit without success. A prominent > member of the Liberation Movement of São Tomé and Príncipe/Social > Democratic Party (MLSTP/PSD), the party that ruled the country for > most of the time since independence in 1975, she is likely to run for > the third time in the 2021 presidential elections. This personal > background makes her book all the more interesting. > > Neves claims that STP, Africa's second smallest country with a > surface area of 1,001 km and just over 200,000 inhabitants, has the > geostrategic potential to become a regional gateway for the entire, > oil-rich Gulf of Guinea region, which in turn would facilitate the > country's sustainable development. Neves's argument and analysis are > guided by a multidisciplinary approach using qualitative and > quantitative methods and theories from different schools of economic > thought, including international relations and political science > together with developmental concepts and statistical information > stemming from international financial institutions and development > agencies. The extensive bibliography includes a disproportionate > number of publications authored by professors teaching at the > institution where she obtained her doctorate degree. This is possibly > the result of institutional practice, rather than based upon > substantive scholarly considerations. However, the author's use of a > significant body of information originating from academic > publications and reports produced by other Santomean authors is > praiseworthy. The book is well written in an accessible style and the > arguments put forward are presented in an adequate manner in the > book's three parts subdivided into thirteen chapters. The three parts > deal with socioeconomic development theories, STP's socioeconomic > realities, and STP's potential as a regional gateway, respectively. > > Neves's analysis places STP in the context of small island developing > states (SIDS) that share several structural vulnerabilities such as a > small population and market, an oversized state, a lack of qualified > human resources, high international transport costs, little economic > diversification, a reduced export base, and great dependence on > imports. The problems of small island states were first studied > within the British Commonwealth in the 1960s, and since the 1990s the > UN has given special attention to this category. The other African > SIDS, that is, Cabo Verde, the Comoros, Mauritius, and the Seychelles > are thus well suited for a comparative analysis of socioeconomic > data. According to Neves, in the case of STP the common problems > affecting SIDS are aggravated by a reduced administrative management > capability due to weak institutional capacities, the poor use of > available resources, and the inadequate qualification of human > resources associated with the brain drain. Another aggravating factor > she mentions is the lack of a global development strategy associated > with a deficient use of external aid in the creation and > modernization of infrastructure and the technical incapacity to > create a private investment-friendly climate. > > In order to carry out a preliminary assessment of STP's potential to > become a regional gateway and the obstacles it faces, she interviewed > eleven local politicians, businesspersons, and representatives of > international organizations. Apparently, none of the interviewees > questioned the feasibility of STP acting as regional gateway as such. > Subsequently she applied a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, > opportunities, threat) template to analyze the answers. The author > concludes that STP's principal strengths are the archipelago's > location off the African coast in a privileged, geostrategic position > in the oil-rich Gulf of Guinea; a functioning multiparty democracy; > political stability and social peace in a society free of ethnic, > religious, or linguistic cleavages; and the economic potential for > expanding the service sector, maritime economy, tourism, > hydrocarbons, and tropical export agriculture. The country's > principal weaknesses would be the costs of insularity, the lack of > economies of scale, insufficient infrastructures, food import > dependency, poor institutional capacities, a lack of qualified human > resources, and a very limited offer of leisure services. In terms of > opportunities, the author reiterates the islands' geostrategic > position associated with political stability and social peace and the > increasing international demand for attractive tourist destinations. > As regards possible threats, she lists sea piracy, the emergence of > competing gateway projects in the region, government corruption, > environmental pressures, and the volatility of international tourism. > > Neves borrowed the concept of gateway from the geopolitical theory of > the American geographer Saul Bernard Cohen, who defines it as a > geopolitical structure that links different parts of the world by > facilitating the exchange of peoples, goods, and ideas.[1] According > to Neves, examples of existing gateways are Singapore, Hong-Kong, > Finland, Bahrain, Trinidad and Tobago, and the Bahamas. A somewhat > similar idea is that of a logistical platform, conceived in France in > the 1960s to concentrate and optimize good distribution in urban > centers. Logistical platforms are geographic spaces where a large > number of operations are concentrated so as to increase productivity > and competitiveness by improving the flow of goods and services. An > example studied by the author is the Multimodal Logistics Platform in > Anápolis, Goiás, Brazil. The concept of a regional service platform > has been presented as the country's future regional economic role by > consecutive STP governments since the late 1990s when the country > signed its first oil and gas exploration contract with a foreign > company. Neves argues that due to its favorable geostrategic position > and sociopolitical features, STP has competitive advantages to play > the role of regional gateway in a sub-region dominated by > oil-producing countries, particularly with regard to the > eleven-member Economic Community of Central African States > (ECCAS/CEEAC), comprising a total population of 1.18 million with a > per capita GDP of $4,870 (2015). Neves believes that the target > region would be significantly larger, stretching from Lomé (Togo) to > Lobito (Angola), if one considers the twelve Gulf of Guinea countries > whose major coastal cities are within range of a two-hour flight or > forty-eight-hour sea voyage from São Tomé. These countries have a > total population of 388.3 million people and a GDP of $765.6 billion, > boasting an annual GDP growth of 5.4 percent (2015). > > Neves places great trust in STP's multiparty democracy, which was > instituted in 1990 as a facilitating element in the country's > transformation into a regional gateway, provided that there is a > political consensus between the legislative and executive powers in > the definition of political strategies and the adoption of the > necessary legislation. She recognizes that political instability > marked by frequent changes of government, as the country experienced > between 1991 and 2014, forms an impediment to any transformative > development process. In economic terms, she considers tourism, > free-trade zones, and the ocean economy, including off-shore oil > production, as strategic vectors for the country becoming a regional > gateway. She admits that so far tourism's development has been slow, > while the establishment of free-trade zones failed completely. The > first tourism development plan adopted in 2001 projected an increase > to 25,000 tourist arrivals in 2010; however, this figure was only > reached in 2016. > > Attempts by foreign companies to set up free-trade zones failed in > 1999 in Príncipe and in 2008 in São Tomé, due to a lack of > interested investors. In 2008, the government and a French shipping > company signed a contract for the construction of a deep-sea > container trans-shipment port in São Tomé. Since then, consecutive > governments have failed to obtain foreign funding for the ambitious > $500-million harbor project. Neves emphasizes that the extension and > modernization of existing transport, energy, and telecom > infrastructures, as well as the existence of an attractive tax > system, an efficient administration, and a credible and independent > judiciary, are similarly indispensable for the archipelago's > transformation into a regional gateway. She firmly believes that > despite the failures of consecutive development models after > independence in STP, the said concept is a feasible alternative > strategy for sustainable development. > > However, the author unfortunately does not provide an adequate answer > to the crucial question of who will be prepared to fund the many > crucial investments in an impoverished former plantation economy with > an annual budget of only $175 million, half of whose funding relies > upon external donors. In the case of public investments, foreign > donors provide even 98 percent of the necessary funding. Another > shortcoming of the book is that statistical data such as GDP, Human > Development Index, incidence of malaria, HIV/AIDS, and other health > data as well as information on education and tourism is largely > outdated, because the figures presented in her doctoral thesis were > not updated for its publication in book form. Some of São Tomé's > historical data quoted in the book is erroneous, as for example the > period of Dutch presence in the seventeenth century, the abolition of > the slave trade, the introduction of coffee and cocoa in the islands > (pp. 123-124), and the year when São Tomé was granted city rights > (p. 218). Apparently, the author relied upon inaccurate secondary > sources for the small colonial history section. > > More serious in the context of the book's main argument is the false > claim that in 2006, after having drilled exploration wells, Chevron > announced the discovery of oil in Block 1 of the Joint Development > Zone (JDZ) shared with Nigeria (p. 188). In fact, Chevron failed to > discover commercially viable oil deposits at the time, which prompted > the company's exit from the JDZ. Worse still, until 2012, several > other oil companies, including Sinopec and Total, conducted > additional exploratory drillings for oil in the JDZ without > discovering exploitable reserves, consequently abandoning the JDZ > altogether. As yet there is no certainty regarding the presence of > exploitable oil reserves in the country's Exclusive Economic Zone > (EEZ) since exploratory drillings in this area have so far not been > carried out. Unfortunately, the author fails to mention these > adversities in her book at all, although the availability of future > oil revenue is crucial for the country's prospects of becoming a > regional gateway. > > Regardless of these shortcomings and inaccuracies, Neves's book is > certainly an interesting contribution to the debates among scholars > and policymakers on the sustainable socioeconomic development of SIDS > in general and of STP in particular. > > Citation: Gerhard Seibert. Review of das Neves de Sousa, Maria, _São > Tomé e Príncipe como um Gateway Regional: Estratégia para um > desenvolvimento sustentável_. H-Luso-Africa, H-Net Reviews. March, > 2021. > URL: https://www.h-net.org/reviews/showrev.php?id=56338 > > This work is licensed under a Creative Commons > Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States > License. > > -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Groups.io Links: You receive all messages sent to this group. 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