Haaretz, April 23, 2021
Analysis | Israel and Russia Find Common Interest in Syria: Keep Assad
on Top, for Now
by Zvi Bar'el
<https://www-haaretz-com.ezproxy.cul.columbia.edu/misc/writers/WRITER-1.4968144>
It was an interesting development Wednesday: The Syrian missile that
crashed near Ashalim in the Negev, about 30 kilometers (19 miles) from
the Dimona nuclear reactor, wasn’t intercepted by the Israeli systems
meant to do just that.
This might make clear that the main threat to Israel isn’t necessarily
the prime minister’s PR machine that hasn’t eschewed a confrontation
with the Biden administration.
Israel operates freely in the airspace over Syria and Lebanon, attacks
the heart of Iran’s nuclear production facilities, bombs near Damascus
and on the Syria-Iraq border, and hovers over Beirut. But it’s not
immune to missiles – fired accidentally or not – from the Gaza Strip.
The central pillar of Israeli strategy against these threats is actually
tactical. Threatening rhetoric and surgical strikes, even if they
eliminate heads of organizations, scientists and military facilities –
including nuclear ones – haven’t changed the strategic threat much. It’s
actually the official agreements, such as those signed between Israel
and Arab countries, or unofficial ones, such as those between Israel and
Hamas, that have increased security.
Syria is a good example of an enemy country that still toes the line of
heated confrontation against Israel. Still, despite the Iranian
presence, Syria isn’t seen as a strategic threat, and not just because
of its limited military capabilities. The relationship between Israel
and Syria has been strengthened by understandings between Israel and
Russia, and recently with the Gulf states, especially the United Arab
Emirates and Bahrain, which were added as anchors to guarantee quiet
with Syria because of their renewed ties with the Syrian regime.
“Is there an end in which Russia leaves Syria, in which Iran leaves
Syria, in which Turkey leaves Syria, ultimately, in which Assad leaves
Syria?” Democrat Ted Deutch, the chairman of the U.S. House Foreign
Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East, North Africa and Global
Counterterrorism, asked experts this week in a session on America’s
Syria strategy.
Some of the experts called this an unrealistic goal, while others
recommended American-Russian cooperation that would leave Moscow’s
military assets in Syria if Russia dropped President Bashar Assad. The
experts agreed that reviving American involvement in Syria, in light of
Joe Biden’s policy that it’s time to “bring the troops home,” or
imposing a solution that would bypass Russia are only dreams for now.
Israel, which isn’t even a participant in the nuclear talks with Iran,
can’t shape Washington’s Syria policy, but it’s not clear if Israel even
knows what strategy it wants. To Israel’s intelligence services, the
existing situation isn’t ideal, but it’s the best Israel could hope to
achieve. The Assad regime isn’t looking for a direct – or indirect – war
with Israel, and it doesn’t respond to attacks on Iranian targets in
Syria. Also, the military and aerial coordination with Russia functions
properly, Hezbollah’s entrenchment on the Syrian side of the Golan
Heights has been stopped, and Iran has redeployed, even if it hasn’t
withdrawn as far back as Israel wants.
“Any strategic change in Syria could leave us facing difficult
questions,” an expert who advises Israeli intelligence on Syria told
Haaretz. “We don’t know who might replace Assad, and whether the
conditions to replace him will come about at all. It’s impossible to
know what regime will arise as part of the diplomatic solution, which
countries will influence the new regime, and what will be the strategy
of such a regime toward Israel.”
Presidential election
The expert added that the discussions on an alternative regime in Syria
don’t top the priority list of Israeli intelligence officials or the
government. The matter came up when Russia pushed the Astana Process –
the peace talks in the Kazakh capital where both the Assad regime and
the rebels tried to craft a political solution to the Syrian crisis. The
talks for now are in a deep freeze.
Israel was interested in the matter at the beginning of the Syrian civil
war when Assad’s future depended on stopping the rebels – and Israeli
representatives met with opposition figures to discuss military aid from
Israel and the feasibility of aid in toppling the regime.
But Assad’s retaking of most of Syria with Russian help, the splitting
of the opposition into a number of administrative bodies under two
separate leaderships, has convinced Israel that it’s best to have
contacts with specific organizations that could serve its immediate
interests, such as those in southern Syria in the Daraa and Sweida
districts. This would prevent pro-Iranian forces from entrenching
themselves, and Israel would forgo ambitious plans on regime change.
It seems Russia is a partner to Israel’s position and has ramped down
its operations to promote a diplomatic solution. Its air force has
operated against rebels, such as the bombing this week at Palmyra where,
according to Russian reports, “at least 200 terrorists were killed.” It
also supports tribal militias in eastern Syria that have taken control
of buildings in areas under the control of the Kurdish forces, who are
supported by the United States.
At the same time, Russia is sticking with the local agreements between
the militias and the regime, as it has done since 2018, with the goal of
stabilizing local cease-fires. This policy has helped Assad restore his
control over many regions of the country, except for the northern areas
where the Kurds rule, and in the Idlib region, where control is divided
between government forces and armed militias, mostly the Tahrir al-Sham
organization.
Russia is also among the handful of countries that support the holding
of the May 26 presidential election. Russia has made clear that all
parties must honor the Syrian constitution, which sets the timetable for
the election, as well as Assad’s term in office. If he wins reelection,
he can stay in office for another seven years.
According to the constitution, this will be the last term Assad can run
for, but don’t hold your breath. Changing the constitution according to
the president’s needs isn’t something particularly rare in Syria.
Syrians may be able to vote overseas, but the regime has announced that
Syrians living abroad – including some 6 million refugees – can only
vote if they have an official exit document, making most of them
ineligible. Meanwhile, most Kurds are expected to boycott the election,
and the millions of internally displaced persons won’t be able to vote
at polling stations they’re not assigned to.
Biden’s dilemma
The international ridicule for the very intention of holding an
election doesn’t impress Assad or Russia, which see the process as
proof of the regime’s legitimacy and of Syria being a country governed
by the rule of law that’s careful to follow its constitution.
More importantly, Assad’s rule is the legal guarantee for a long list of
economic agreements that Russia signed in recent years that include the
rights to oil and natural gas drilling under excellent conditions. This
includes last month's agreement for gas and oil exploration in Syria’s
exclusive economic zone in the Mediterranean Sea.
This agreement has alarmed Lebanon, Turkey, Greece and Cyprus, which
border Syria’s waters, because Russia’s entry into this playing field
could upset the fragile division of maritime rights. This has sparked a
severe crisis between Turkey and Greece, Cyprus and the European Union,
and between Syria and Lebanon, which say the border of the exclusive
economic zone has not yet been agreed on.
On this matter too, we haven’t heard Washington’s position except for
Biden’s comment that his advisers are working hard on reexamining U.S.
policy in the Middle East. The U.S. policy might become less foggy in
July, if it’s indeed crafted by then, when the UN Security Council once
again discusses the opening of the border crossings to humanitarian
convoys for Syrians in the north.
About 4.5 million people rely on these supply convoys, and the Syrian
regime and Moscow must approve their entry. In 2014, the United Nations
passed a resolution to operate four border crossings, from Jordan, Iraq
and Turkey, and during every period a new resolution had to be passed to
keep them open. Russia and China twice used their vetoes regarding the
crossings, and last time they agreed to approve only one crossing
between northern Syria and Turkey.
The United States and Europe are demanding an increase in the number of
opened crossings because the one that’s open, at Bab al-Hawa, can’t
handle the thousands of trucks that wait with goods such as life-saving
medicines that go to waste every day. The Syrian forces supervising the
crossings loot some of the goods or demand bribes for letting them
cross, even when the truck drivers have the necessary permits.
Sealing off most of the crossings, known as “the starvation strategy”
with which the Assad regime and Russia are trying to force the Kurdish
and Islamist militias in Idlib to surrender, will force Biden to make a
clear strategic decision on this brutal policy.
Will he suffice with a condemnation and diplomatic messages, will he
impose further sanctions on Syria and maybe even Russia, or will he send
a task force to oversee the crossings? No decision will be isolated from
the bad blood between Biden and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
or from his aggressive diplomatic campaign against Russia and in
negotiating the Iranian nuclear deal.
For the residents of northern Syria, who can’t obtain medicine and food
staples, these considerations are an existential danger. But of course
they’re not participants in the process.
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