Hi Hari, I think your analysis is pretty spot on. On the last part, about Russia and China, I think it doesn't really matter that they are involved in their own local imperialist quests; that's true, but also neither have ever been much interested in Palestine; certainly neither would step in to aid Iran, though they would complain if there were a US strike. The possibility of "WW3" we hear around the place is an absolute zero. Actually Russia still sells oil to Israel, has recently strengthened its presence on Syria's 'border' with the Israeli-occupied Golan to help Assad maintain the quiet there (keeping Palestiniand or pro-Iran forces away) and still quietly allows Israeli warplanes to bomb Iran-backed forces in Syria (it controls Syria's air defence), despite the diplomatic games it is playing to expose US extremism on Israel's Gaza genocide, as quid pro quo for US opposition to its own imperialist conquest of Ukraine. China? Well, as Israel's second major trading partner and part-owner of its main port, Haifa, it doesn;t care much as long as the wheels of commerce keep rolling, though the Houthis in Yemen have caused some problems for China's prolific trade with Israel.
On the main issues you raise, here's something I just put out on social media: The Israel-Iran theatre show aims to distract from Gaza genocide. How many Palestinians has Israel shot, bombed, starved in the last few days? Not much in the news, because we've been distracted by "bigger" theatre. A "regional" conflict may be brewing etc etc. Let's observe and analyse, but let's not get sucked into the idea that this "bigger picture" is what it is all about. That's what Israel (and Iran and its supporters for that matter) want you to think. Let's look at what has happened. The US was pleased that decades of Iran regime bluster (never aimed at anything other than internal and regional ideological homogenisation) amounted to nothing as Israel committed genocide in Gaza for 6 months (and let's face it, Gaza is virtually no more), but Israel was less pleased. Pleased the first month or two maybe, to allow them to get on with it (Khameini famously told Hamas chief Haniyeh in Tehran, "you didn't give us any warning, so you're on your own, and by the way, tell other Palestinians to shut up" about Iran's bluster turning out to be hollow). But after that, Israeli leaders, or at least Netanyahu's gang, seemed to want to escalate. But no matter how many Iranian operatives, even leading "Revolutionary" Guards etc, Israel killed in Syria, it just couldn't get a response. How are you supposed to maintain a 30-year propaganda campaign that Israel faces not just brutally oppressed Palestinians, but behind them a big powerful 4th Reich dedicated to Israel's destruction, when the "Reich" never does anything, not even in response? For years, and now for months no matter how much Israel turned up the dial. An Iranian response would be especially useful now, because if Iran's response were harsh enough, it may bring in the US against Iran, and under the cover of a region-wide conflagration Israel could carry out its genocide in Gaza - and the West Bank - to completion, it would be a mere sideshow compared to this "bigger picture," and the world could be convinced that poor little Israel faces powerful enemies etc. So it hit the Iranian consulate in Syria, knowing Iran would now have no choice but to respond at some level. At first Iran said it was the US's fault (a deliberate game, in my view), a hint that the response might simply be that its Iraqi Shiite militia proxies go back to hitting US bases in Iraq or Syria, something they stopped completely months ago (under Iranian regime pressure). Then the US said, oh, we had nothing to do with Israel's action, and no advance warning, so make sure you don't hit us. In other words, hit Israeli interests somewhere, not US interests. But then the US said, if you hit Israel, the US support for Israel's defence is "ironclad." Then Iran hinted that its response would not be of an escalatory nature. Then we read in the media for a couple of days in advance exactly what its response would be, as if the discussions had been going on (via Oman was one hint, via UAE, Iraq, other states with good relations with both US and Iran) about what would be within reasonable limits; being well-choreographed in advance, this gave time for Israel, US and UK to be well-positioned to shoot down all the drones that Iran sent. Iran knew that, of course. Iran then declared that the matter is now concluded, making very clear, for anyone reading the lines (not even between them) that this was about the violation of its consulate, not about Palestine. Meanwhile, since the US "ironclad" support for Israel's defence happened, the US therefore does not need to do any more; I believe Biden supports Israel so far, but does not want to get sucked into Netanyahu's escalatory games; in that sense, while the whole thing does create theatrical distraction from Gaza, it is not quite enough for Netanyahu; it is not quite a regional conflagration. Unless of course Israel now decides to up the ante. Watch this space. On Sun, Apr 14, 2024 at 10:42 PM hari kumar <[email protected]> wrote: > As I frame this as a hypothesis - it is clearly thus far speculative. > > > However: > The signs look to me as if the Israeli government has tried to provoke the > Iranian government into a fully fledged war. Israel took the step to > illegally (by international law) attack and kill the Iranian members of > diplomatic staff and others in the Syrian state. No one contests this as > far as I can see. No one of the imperialist nations also condemned this > action. It was a clear attempt to "internationalize" the current awful - > but localised 'war' in Gaza. > The Israeli government wanted other countries to be drawn in, a situation > that would ultimately serve its purposes - to physically expand its borders > while it was continuing to knock off its pesky problem of Palestinians in > its own borders. > > Trouble is neither the USA nor Iran - wanted a full out war at this time. > But Iran was not to lose face. It had to show somehow that it would not > tolerate repeats of this. But - Iran has been openly signalling for the > past 6-7 days that it "would respond". > The USA equally has been openly signalling that they do not want a full > scale war in the Middle east. Basically as far s I can see all the many > missiles sent up where intercepted by USA Air force. They had been relieved > from any other responsibliity by the British squadrons sent to Cyprus - who > announced they would take over 'routine assignments' to free up the USAF > that is stationed there. > > I suspect but I obviously cannot prove, that they have been in close touch > and have concocted this enormous (and terribly worrying) charade. Iran > gains face. USA shows it has 'defended' Israel, even while very mildly > 'rebuking' its ally for being a naughty child and going a wee bit too far. > Both USA and Iran thereby de-fang Netanyahu's intent to draw them into the > theatre with their boots on the ground. > > A delicate waltz of course, on a slippery floor. Dangerous for the world's > peoples; and a full international war would likely not have boded well for > the Palestinians. None of the imperial forces (USA, UK, Germany, France... > say for now the EU, and NATO - ranged against Russia and China) are yet > ready. Their populations are already fired up about the Palestinian cause, > and it would be right now a few steps beyond what they can pull over their > peoples. > The latter two and weaker imperialists (Russia and China) are too > engrossed in sorting out their own back-yards (Ukraine and the South China > Seas). As far as I know they have been pretty quiet about most of recent > events. (? I am unsure but I think this is true ?- I have not checked out > their various public statements right now). > > Hypotheses demand challenges to their assumptions. Any 'proofs' or > 'disproofs' to the above? > Thanks for considering, > > > H > > > -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Groups.io Links: You receive all messages sent to this group. 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