by Al Mayadeen English, Source: The Wall Street Journal + AFP, July 5 https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/negative-israeli-battlefield-calculations-spur-ceasefire-tal
Talks of the positive atmosphere surrounding ceasefire talks and a prisoner exchange deal in the Gaza Strip, spurred by recent feedback submitted by Hamas to mediators, have taken center stage in discussions of the ongoing Israeli war on Gaza. However, Hamas' positive feedback has not been the only factor influencing the revival of ceasefire talks, as the movement has been positive and flexible throughout the mediated negotiations process. According to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), a shift in Israeli battlefield calculations has led analysts to conclude that the Israeli military and security establishment is pushing the Benjamin Netanyahu-led Israeli government to finalize a deal with the Palestinian Resistance. "Time is passing and all sides are realizing that time is not working in their favor, especially the Israeli side," said Ofer Shelah, a former Israeli lawmaker and military analyst with the "Israeli Institute for National Security Studies" (INSS), as quoted by WSJ. Israeli occupation forces are set to transition into the infamous third stage of operations in Rafah, which is the case with all other areas in the Gaza Strip. This stage will see a reduced number of Israeli forces deployed around the city and smaller incursions into specific neighborhoods in the southernmost city of the Gaza Strip. As occupation forces transition to this new phase of operations, and with Palestinian Resistance fighters maintaining control in Rafah and other cities in the Gaza Strip, Israeli hopes for eliminating Hamas appear increasingly unrealistic. The aftermath of the Israeli military command transitioning to the third stage of operations in Gaza City's al-Shujaiya and Jabalia is clear evidence of the Israeli strategy's failure to achieve the declared war goals. . . . As the invasion shifts into a much lower-intensity phase, with no significant progress toward achieving Israeli war goals, justifying the continued attacks and occupation in the Gaza Strip becomes increasingly difficult. "Despite all of the bravado, the Israeli security establishment is coming to the understanding…that the possible achievements of continued fighting in Gaza are minimal, perhaps even negative," Shelah explained. . . . *Changes on Gaza Battlefield Spur Revival of Israel-Hamas Cease-Fire Talks* Military shift by Israel creates an opening, but significant disagreements remain by Anat Peled, Wall Street Journal, July 5 https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/changes-on-gaza-battlefield-spur-revival-of-israel-hamas-cease-fire-talks-eb6348dc After weeks in which it seemed talks toward a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas had stopped completely, a shift in the background has given them new life. Negotiators suddenly resumed negotiations on Friday in Doha, Qatar, shortly after Israel signaled it is preparing to wind down major military operations in Gaza after nine months of war. That unilateral shift in strategy has created an opening for both sides. Civilians in Gaza and Israel have grown increasingly frustrated with the lack of progress, international pressure continues to swell, and both militaries are battered and looking to regroup for future fights. . . . For Israel, a shift in the battlefield calculation has led analysts to conclude that the Israeli security establishment, which includes the military, Mossad and the Shin Bet internal security service, is now pushing the Israeli government for a deal. . . . Mossad officials told the countries mediating talks that they were optimistic that the Israeli cabinet would accept the most recent proposal, according to an official familiar with the negotiations. “We are nearing the end of the stage of the destruction of Hamas’s terror army and will have to target its remnants going forward,” Netanyahu said in a speech on Monday, signaling the battlefield shift. . . . New suggestions from Hamas, which the U.S. designates as a terrorist organization, indicated a willingness to compromise, bringing “a breakthrough on a critical impasse,” a senior Biden administration official said. A key change was Hamas’s shift away from a demand for a full Israeli withdrawal during the first stage of a deal, a phase that would involve the release of some hostages during a proposed six-week cease-fire, the senior Israeli official said. Through Qatar and Egypt, the U.S. is now exerting significant pressure on Hamas to reach a deal, said Amos Yadlin, a former head of Israeli military intelligence. Qatar has threatened to evict the group’s political leadership from its capital. Israeli military pressure on the ground, especially its seizure of Gaza’s roughly 9-mile southern border with Egypt, known as the Philadelphi Corridor, also has helped push the militant group back to the negotiating table, Yadlin said. . . . Families of Israeli hostages have been protesting for months to put pressure on the Israeli government to reach a deal and rescue their loved ones. Of the hostages taken in the Hamas-led attack, 116 are still captive in Gaza, including at least 42 dead, according to Israel. Released hostages say that those remaining face the risk of malnutrition, a lack of medical care and the dangers of Israeli airstrikes. While protests at the start of the war initially called for freeing the hostages through any means possible, including through military operations, many families are now declaring that a cease-fire deal is the only way they believe their relatives will be set free. # # # -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Groups.io Links: You receive all messages sent to this group. View/Reply Online (#31028): https://groups.io/g/marxmail/message/31028 Mute This Topic: https://groups.io/mt/107065751/21656 -=-=- POSTING RULES & NOTES #1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. #2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived. #3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern. #4 Do not exceed five posts a day. -=-=- Group Owner: [email protected] Unsubscribe: https://groups.io/g/marxmail/leave/8674936/21656/1316126222/xyzzy [[email protected]] -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
