https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/kamala-harris-gaza-israel-biden-election-poll
> Twenty-nine percent of non-voters who supported Biden in 2020 said U.S. > support for the genocide was the top reason they sat the 2024 election, > according to a survey by YouGov. > > Ryan Grim <https://substack.com/@ryangrim> > Jan 15 > <https://substack.com/@ryangrim> > > > <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=2510348&post_id=154890457&utm_source=substack&isFreemail=true&submitLike=true&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMDc0NTQxODIsInBvc3RfaWQiOjE1NDg5MDQ1NywicmVhY3Rpb24iOiLinaQiLCJpYXQiOjE3MzY5NTg4NDcsImV4cCI6MTczOTU1MDg0NywiaXNzIjoicHViLTI1MTAzNDgiLCJzdWIiOiJyZWFjdGlvbiJ9.DiUbuQDkQurC9cl7FjZs-aEACF9_lLx71KSI-bqnU40&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email-reaction&r=1rz46e> > > <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=2510348&post_id=154890457&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&isFreemail=true&comments=true&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMDc0NTQxODIsInBvc3RfaWQiOjE1NDg5MDQ1NywiaWF0IjoxNzM2OTU4ODQ3LCJleHAiOjE3Mzk1NTA4NDcsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0yNTEwMzQ4Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.Di1FqSpMoDoSL6EdhIgtL24TzwBpW6GsnZalphfFraw&r=1rz46e&utm_campaign=email-half-magic-comments&action=post-comment&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email> > > <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=2510348&post_id=154890457&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&utm_campaign=email-share&action=share&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=true&r=1rz46e&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMDc0NTQxODIsInBvc3RfaWQiOjE1NDg5MDQ1NywiaWF0IjoxNzM2OTU4ODQ3LCJleHAiOjE3Mzk1NTA4NDcsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0yNTEwMzQ4Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.Di1FqSpMoDoSL6EdhIgtL24TzwBpW6GsnZalphfFraw> > > <https://substack.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.BsZwX9sMgXwQtVxSl9XpBpkt2vxQ_ttRhbLgbpK7C48?&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email> > > READ IN APP > <https://open.substack.com/pub/dropsitenews/p/kamala-harris-gaza-israel-biden-election-poll?utm_source=email&redirect=app-store&utm_campaign=email-read-in-app> > > > From 2020 to 2024, Democrats saw a staggering dropoff in support at the > presidential level, with some *19 million people who voted for Joe Biden > staying home (or not mailing in their ballots) in 2024.* Now, a new > survey conducted by YouGov suggests Biden’s support for Israel’s > unrelenting assault on Gaza played a surprisingly large role in the choice > of those previous Biden supporters not to vote. > > The top reason those non-voters cited, above the economy at 24 percent and > immigration at 11 percent, *was Gaza: a full 29 percent* cited the > ongoing onslaught as the top reason they didn’t cast a vote in 2024. > > Looking narrowly at states that swung from Biden in 2020 to Trump in 2024, > the number is smaller. But in those states, 20 percent still cited Gaza as > the reason they didn’t vote again. The poll was paid for by the Institute > for Middle East Understanding, which has been an outspoken critic of > Israel’s assault on Gaza. > > Drop Site News is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts, > consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. > > Upgrade to paid > <https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZHJvcHNpdGVuZXdzLmNvbS9zdWJzY3JpYmU_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.gt0XrAa0bqaAhYTkfux4XdEwm4wCkq9RbUvtmZoQxwU?&utm_medium=email&utm_source=subscribe-widget-preamble&utm_content=154890457> > Before firmly demonstrating that Gaza cost Democrats the election, it’s > important to keep a handful of caveats in mind. Even if October 7 and the > resulting genocide had never happened, it’s fair to assume some number of > those non-voters still would not have voted, and would have cited a > different top reason for not voting. Citing a top reason for not voting is > far different than it being the only reason not to vote. > > And because the turnout drop off was smaller in swing states, Gaza may not > have been decisive on its own. Whenever surveys confirm views we already > hold, or tell us things we *want* to be true, it’s worth approaching > their findings with increased skepticism. Still, even the most biased poll > can only manufacture so much of a response. *Even if the true numbers > aren’t as stark as this survey found, it points in a clear direction: > Biden’s ruthless support for Israel’s genocide, and the refusal of > Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris to break with him, hurt her > among voters who stayed home.* > > A previous survey, taken during the election by You and also sponsored by > IMEU, found *strong evidence that Harris would be significantly boosted > by breaking with Biden on Gaza and applying real pressure on Israel. But > Harris chose not to do so.* > > Breaking with Biden on Gaza could have had knock on effects elsewhere, as > Harris never successfully answered a question that dogged her throughout > her campaign: What would she have done differently than Biden? Or what > would she do differently in the future? > > Eventually, Harris settled on an unsatisfying answer. “My presidency will > not be a continuation of Joe Biden’s presidency, and like every new > president that comes into office, I will bring my life experiences, my > professional experiences, and fresh and new ideas,” she said > <https://substack.com/redirect/f7476234-2712-4b0c-ba43-2addd2443e3f?j=eyJ1IjoiMXJ6NDZlIn0.vwFUUWXitToCG6lkdgIOEZJA0yByKrMNCn3mtPeVIW4> > in one emblematic response. “Clearly, I am not Joe Biden,” she said at > the presidential debate. > <https://substack.com/redirect/1220dcac-8b6e-41e2-bbd0-d78ea4187e52?j=eyJ1IjoiMXJ6NDZlIn0.vwFUUWXitToCG6lkdgIOEZJA0yByKrMNCn3mtPeVIW4> > Yet, she had no answer for how they diverged, other than “And I am > certainly not Donald Trump.” In an appearance > <https://substack.com/redirect/8aaa92f9-b74a-4d0e-bdc8-02fc2c8ece82?j=eyJ1IjoiMXJ6NDZlIn0.vwFUUWXitToCG6lkdgIOEZJA0yByKrMNCn3mtPeVIW4> > on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, she reiterated these points, and > followed with a gobbledygook response about American aspirations and > opportunity and small businesses. In other high-profile interviews, she > similarly declined to offer any answer as to what she would do differently, > other than be a different person. > > Of course, diverging from Biden on Gaza risked losing voters who supported > his policy. But a close look at the survey suggests *that* *risk was low > compared to the potential reward.* Voters who were with Biden in 2020 and > stuck with Harris in 2024 were asked if breaking with him on Gaza would > make them more or less enthusiastic about voting for Harris. By a 35 to 5 > margin, they said doing so would have made them *more* enthusiastic to > vote for her, with the remainder saying *it would have made no > difference.* > > Meanwhile, Democrats’ unshakable commitment to the war also blended with > concerns that the party was not focused on issues that mattered to > Americans, as I argued previously > <https://substack.com/redirect/f717fc70-2bee-4167-9917-6f3270378d94?j=eyJ1IjoiMXJ6NDZlIn0.vwFUUWXitToCG6lkdgIOEZJA0yByKrMNCn3mtPeVIW4> > . > > The survey showed that the issue of Gaza was most salient among white > voters, 34 percent of whom said it was the top reason they didn’t vote for > Harris, and Hispanic voters (27 percent), while less so with black voters > (just 9 percent). > > The issue factored most heavily in Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and > less so in Pennsylvania (19 percent cited it as the top reason not to > vote), Nevada, (13), and Georgia (6), according to the survey. > > - > > Arizona: 38% > - > > Georgia: 6% > - > > Michigan: 32% > - > > Nevada: 13% > - > > Pennsylvania: 19% > - > > Wisconsin: 32% > > On January 12, The Times of Israel published an interview > <https://substack.com/redirect/89f6fc68-a3da-401d-849d-8f66d4d73ee7?j=eyJ1IjoiMXJ6NDZlIn0.vwFUUWXitToCG6lkdgIOEZJA0yByKrMNCn3mtPeVIW4> > with Jack Lew, Biden’s ambassador to Israel, in which *he acknowledged > the impact of the administration’s decisions on Gaza. * > > “Standing with Israel for these past 15 months, with huge opposition in > the media, in parts of his own party,” he said, *“you could argue that it > contributed to making his challenge for reelection insurmountable.”* > my 2 cents - To those dead end liberals who will respond that Trump is no > better - yes but for Palestinians and opponents of complicity with Israeli > genocide, he's no worse. Those who refused to vote for Biden/Harris valued > their principles and self respect and couldn't face anyone by admitting > that they voted FOR the people whose policies they protested AGAINST - > otherwise it'd be political schizophrenia! > -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Groups.io Links: You receive all messages sent to this group. View/Reply Online (#34638): https://groups.io/g/marxmail/message/34638 Mute This Topic: https://groups.io/mt/110632203/21656 -=-=- POSTING RULES & NOTES #1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. #2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived. #3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern. #4 Do not exceed five posts a day. -=-=- Group Owner: marxmail+ow...@groups.io Unsubscribe: https://groups.io/g/marxmail/leave/13617172/21656/1316126222/xyzzy [arch...@mail-archive.com] -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
