http://redmed.org/article/whither-syria
An article ( http://redmed.org/article/great-earthquake-western-asia ) was previously published on the RedMed website ( http://redmed.org/article/great-earthquake-western-asia ) on how the great change in Syria, which may be expected to shake the whole of Western Asia (the Middle East), came about, what forces prepared the ground for this change, why Assad's Baathist regime collapsed, and what role various external forces played in the victory of HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham - the Great Syria Liberation Organization) and SNA (the Syrian National Army, i.e. the Syrian army under the command of the Erdoğan government). The main thrust of that article was to understand the dynamics behind the collapse of the Baathist regime, which took everyone by surprise, and to gauge the depth of change that this would bring about across Western Asia. The task now is to try to grasp the new dynamics emerging in the context of Syria, Turkey and Western Asia in general, taking into account the developments of the last month or so since December 8, and thus to foresee the prospects of the coming period as clearly as possible. Of course, prospects cannot be reduced to a single scenario. The reader will see below that the future of Syria can be analyzed on the basis of at least two main scenarios: a form of development in which Syria is unified as a single state under the auspices of the imperialist system, with Turkey at the forefront, by a regime that disguises itself and its long-term goals, which we can characterize as “coat-and-tie takfirism ". The alternative is a Libya-like scenario in which HTS as well as Turkey behind it are unable to control the various forces in Syria, and cannot reach a full agreement with imperialism, leaving the country fragmented between warlords of different tendencies. -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Groups.io Links: You receive all messages sent to this group. View/Reply Online (#34724): https://groups.io/g/marxmail/message/34724 Mute This Topic: https://groups.io/mt/110705822/21656 -=-=- POSTING RULES & NOTES #1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. #2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived. #3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern. #4 Do not exceed five posts a day. -=-=- Group Owner: marxmail+ow...@groups.io Unsubscribe: https://groups.io/g/marxmail/leave/13617172/21656/1316126222/xyzzy [arch...@mail-archive.com] -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
