Earlier in this excerpt from a piece by New Yorker editor, David Remnick, Scott Anderson, author of“King of Kings,” is quoted. An excellent account of the fall of the Shah, which I listened to, as an audiobook.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-lede/the-bloody-lesson-the-ayatollah-took-from-the-shah “What was clear to the experts I spoke to, however, is that the demonstrations happening throughout Iran today are not religiously oriented or focussed on a particular spokesman or sector of society; they are largely about national pride and leading a normal, prosperous, and stable daily life. There are slogans heard on the streets calling for freedom, but not necessarily for democracy. Beyond that, it is extremely difficult to discern with any confidence where this could lead, whether the regime collapses or manages to endure. A few months ago, Sadjadpour published an important essay in *Foreign Affairs called* “The Autumn of the Ayatollahs <https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/autumn-ayatollahs>,” in which he speculated on what Iran might become after Khamenei dies or if he is deposed. Could Iran resemble China and shift from theocracy to technocracy? Will it resemble Pakistan, becoming a security state led by the generals of the I.R.G.C.? Might it resemble the isolation and terror of North Korea or the reactionary qualities of Putin’s post-Soviet Russia or the authoritarianism of Erdoğan’s Turkey? Sadjadpour carefully sorts through scenarios, similarities, and differences with a keen sense of Iran’s history and particularities. Much of what makes his essay convincing is its intellectual modesty, its readiness to say that trying to derive confident predictions of the future from the chaos of what is happening on the streets and in government offices is folly. He reminds the reader of another Iran expert, James A. Bill, who wrote an article for *Foreign Affairs* for its winter 1978/1979 issue called “Iran and the Crisis of ’78. <https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/iran/1978-12-01/iran-and-crisis-78>” Bill, the author of “The Eagle and the Lion <https://www.amazon.com/James-Bill-Tragedy-American-Iranian-Relations/dp/B008WDGK1A>,” a distinguished book about American-Iranian relations, wrote that “the most probable alternative” to the Shah would be “a left-wing, progressive group of middle-ranking army officers.” Other possibilities, he said, included “a right-wing military junta, a liberal democratic system based on Western models, and a communist government.” History had other plans.” -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Groups.io Links: You receive all messages sent to this group. View/Reply Online (#40131): https://groups.io/g/marxmail/message/40131 Mute This Topic: https://groups.io/mt/117207978/21656 -=-=- POSTING RULES & NOTES #1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. #2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived. #3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern. #4 Do not exceed five posts a day. -=-=- Group Owner: [email protected] Unsubscribe: https://groups.io/g/marxmail/leave/13617172/21656/1316126222/xyzzy [[email protected]] -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
