> > Some political insiders in Iran oppose the memorandum of understanding > with the U.S., calling it a strategic mistake. > > Murtaza Hussain <https://substack.com/@mazmhussain> and Reza Sayah > <https://substack.com/@rezarez> > Jun 18 > <https://substack.com/@mazmhussain> <https://substack.com/@rezarez> > > > <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=2510348&post_id=202626415&utm_source=substack&isFreemail=true&submitLike=true&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMDc0NTQxODIsInBvc3RfaWQiOjIwMjYyNjQxNSwicmVhY3Rpb24iOiLinaQiLCJpYXQiOjE3ODE4MTU3NzAsImV4cCI6MTc4NDQwNzc3MCwiaXNzIjoicHViLTI1MTAzNDgiLCJzdWIiOiJyZWFjdGlvbiJ9.6T70f2FNK6P-sj1VJm-Mm9LGfVWidDQpJyq3eMMdYcc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email-reaction&r=1rz46e> > > <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=2510348&post_id=202626415&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&isFreemail=true&comments=true&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMDc0NTQxODIsInBvc3RfaWQiOjIwMjYyNjQxNSwiaWF0IjoxNzgxODE1NzcwLCJleHAiOjE3ODQ0MDc3NzAsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0yNTEwMzQ4Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.7KBXv5GWglBNBiX6yQW8D8vSOVSrPgM9GGTYlP2ag8Q&r=1rz46e&utm_campaign=email-half-magic-comments&action=post-comment&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email> > > <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=2510348&post_id=202626415&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&utm_campaign=email-share&action=share&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=true&r=1rz46e&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMDc0NTQxODIsInBvc3RfaWQiOjIwMjYyNjQxNSwiaWF0IjoxNzgxODE1NzcwLCJleHAiOjE3ODQ0MDc3NzAsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0yNTEwMzQ4Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.7KBXv5GWglBNBiX6yQW8D8vSOVSrPgM9GGTYlP2ag8Q> > > <https://substack.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.YefmznLxRmox7qPLMjziw8u7IysfoLiRhjstTr5yTsQ?&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email> > > READ IN APP > <https://open.substack.com/pub/dropsitenews/p/iran-trump-deal-critics-mojtaba-khamenei?utm_source=email&redirect=app-store&utm_campaign=email-read-in-app> > > > Drop Site is reader-funded—no corporate owners, no outside influence. Your > support is what keeps this journalism independent and free. Please > consider making a tax-deductible donation to support our work > <https://substack.com/redirect/86e7ef1d-c85e-4321-bfc0-dd499f65cad5?j=eyJ1IjoiMXJ6NDZlIn0.vwFUUWXitToCG6lkdgIOEZJA0yByKrMNCn3mtPeVIW4> > . > Upgrade to paid > <https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZHJvcHNpdGVuZXdzLmNvbS9zdWJzY3JpYmU_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.z8S53LwglU8ClfGsTYCkYo7p1PGvM6m20zQyfz64zyw?&utm_medium=email&utm_source=subscribe-widget&utm_content=202626415> > > <https://substack.com/redirect/4929b564-4674-4d03-980b-df9fc43bea7f?j=eyJ1IjoiMXJ6NDZlIn0.vwFUUWXitToCG6lkdgIOEZJA0yByKrMNCn3mtPeVIW4> > Iranians > walk past a portrait of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei as > they participate in a nightly rally marking the Muslim holy month of > Muharram in downtown Tehran, Iran, on June 15, 2026. Photo by Morteza > Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images. > > The night before the U.S.-Iran deal was first digitally > <https://substack.com/redirect/2b3c23f1-4ea5-4eee-9488-2518c2c20913?j=eyJ1IjoiMXJ6NDZlIn0.vwFUUWXitToCG6lkdgIOEZJA0yByKrMNCn3mtPeVIW4> > signed on June 15, hundreds of demonstrators gathered in the streets of > Tehran to denounce the agreement. Protesters outside the Iranian foreign > ministry waved placards demanding a resumption of the war, even personally > denouncing the lead negotiators of the memorandum of understanding, Iranian > Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi and parliamentary speaker Mohammed Bagher > Qalibaf, as “capitulators” to the country’s enemies. > > Despite a general consensus favoring the deal, which was signed separately > by President Donald Trump in Versailles and by Iranian President Masoud > Pezeshkian in Tehran on Wednesday, a small yet vocal subset of the Iranian > political system has reacted with dismay to the agreement, characterizing > it as a strategic mistake and a betrayal of Iranian national interests. > > “It seems that they have become more radical than before,” Feresteh > Sadeghi, a journalist and political analyst based in Tehran, told Drop > Site, referring to the protesters. “Their action and protest movement got > too much attention and raised alarm bells among authorities in the country, > and the security forces as well.” > > In a statement issued on Thursday, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei > seemed to distance himself from the agreement, saying that he had > authorized Iran’s political leaders to sign, while suggesting that he > personally did not agree with the deal. Stating that he had a “different > opinion,” Khamenei said that he nonetheless authorized Pezeshkian to go > forward after “he explicitly accepted responsibility for it.” > > The demonstrations in Tehran this week against the agreement were largely > driven by supporters of the Front of Islamic Revolution Stability, > popularly known by its Persian term, Paydari, an ideologically hardline > faction. Paydari has numerous supporters in the Iranian parliament and > generally rejects negotiations with the West, believing that Iran can > achieve security only through continued confrontation that exhausts the > will and capacity of Washington to continue fighting. > > Representatives of this trend in Iranian politics also vociferously > opposed the signing of the 2015 nuclear deal with the Obama administration, > with members of parliament leading protests, threatening negotiators, and > even breaking down in tears > <https://substack.com/redirect/df319a8c-19fb-4398-93f0-6d25cbf5b225?j=eyJ1IjoiMXJ6NDZlIn0.vwFUUWXitToCG6lkdgIOEZJA0yByKrMNCn3mtPeVIW4> > over the signing of an agreement that many warned at the time would not be > honored and would serve only to lay the groundwork for future U.S. attacks > against Iran. > > The first Trump administration validated these fears in 2018 by violating > the nuclear agreement despite Iranian compliance. Egged on by the Israeli > government, Trump pivoted instead to a campaign of sanctions, > assassinations, and military attacks against Iran termed as “maximum > pressure.” That campaign failed to topple the government, but it did > transform the Iranian political system—discrediting reformists and > galvanizing the conservatives now leading street marches denouncing the > prospect of a new deal with Washington. > > The terms of the MOU include a permanent halt to the fighting on all > fronts, including Lebanon, as well as commitments to end sanctions on the > Iranian economy and direct foreign investment into the country, in exchange > for Iranian commitments to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and that it will not > develop a nuclear weapon. Detailed discussions about the Iranian nuclear > program and permanent reintegration of Tehran into the global economy will > take place over a 60 day period that is “extendable with mutual consent.” > > Despite a broad public perception that the deal is favorable to Iran, and > even represents a capitulation by Trump, opponents inside Iran have argued > that the agreement actually places serious burdens on Tehran and sets the > stage for future American attacks. > > Mahmoud Nabavian, a member of parliament from Tehran, has given a series > of television interviews opposing the agreement and explaining what he > describes as an unfair sequencing of Iranian commitments. Nabavian > described the deal on social media as a “pure loss” for the country. > “Victory can only be achieved through resistance,” Nabavian said in public > comments the day the MOU was digitally signed. “With the current approach, > no victory has been won and the threat of war will not be removed from the > country.” > > Despite such dissent, supporters of the deal remain firmly in the drivers’ > seat of policymaking. In a series of audio messages, Mahdi Mohammadi, an > advisor to Ghalibaf, explained the relative benefits of the agreement, > seeking to assuage critics’ concerns and comparing the MOU favorably to the > 2015 nuclear deal, saying the war had given Iran powerful leverage to > ensure that the U.S. would not renege on its commitments once again. > > “The strait is in our hands, we can close it any time we want,” Mohammadi > said, adding that unlike in 2015, the Gulf Arab countries have now also > been forced to compromise with Iran, including through investments and > repatriation of frozen Iranian funds intended to prevent the resumption of > a war that had devastated their own economies. > > These arguments appear to have been broadly convincing, even as the threat > of war continues to loom over Iran after two sneak attacks by the U.S. and > Israel over the past two years. > > “I think the Israelis will do their best, perhaps even abetted by the > neocons in Washington, to reignite the war somehow,” Ali Kolahi, former > chairman of Iran’s Industry Commission in the Iranian Chamber of Commerce, > told Drop Site. “But I also think the leaders of the country think that if > the U.S. tries to go for the jugular again, we can again close the Strait > of Hormuz and go for horizontal escalation. We may have other bits and > pieces that we haven’t yet shown.” > > While the original nuclear agreement made with the Obama administration > was sold as the first step towards a broader reconciliation with the West, > the new arrangement is being presented to supporters of the government as a > purely pragmatic arrangement—entered into with “no trust” towards > Washington and a continued readiness to return to armed confrontation if > necessary, thus avoiding the perceived mistakes of the pro-Western > reformist camp. > > “The liberal camp has definitely lost the narrative in Iran compared to > 2015, when they kind of had the upper hand and they were able to execute > some of their policies, some of their more West-leaning, more conciliatory > policies. We saw what came out of that, the U.S. did not respect any of > that, and they attacked Iran,” said Navid Zarrinal, a political analyst and > historian based in Tehran. “The biggest concern is essentially their > naivete about the nature of the West. > > We talk to a lot of these liberals. They say that if Iranians just stop > saying ‘death to America’ and act like a normal country, everything would > be resolved. But that’s not the case.” > > Zarrinal explained, “We saw it with Syria—Syria basically surrendered to > U.S. and Israeli demands, but Israel still bombed their defensive > infrastructure. If the moderates get their way, I can guarantee you that > Israel would still bomb Iran’s defensive infrastructure the next day.” > *Economic Pressure* > > A major factor pushing even a government heavily influenced by the Islamic > Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) to seek detente with the U.S. is the dire > economic condition > <https://substack.com/redirect/b6b0347d-4c6f-4fde-b0db-cfa5524880ef?j=eyJ1IjoiMXJ6NDZlIn0.vwFUUWXitToCG6lkdgIOEZJA0yByKrMNCn3mtPeVIW4> > inside Iran after years of sanctions and the destruction of Iranian > civilian infrastructure during the recent war. Several million Iranians are > believed to have lost their jobs directly or indirectly as a result of the > recent fighting, blockade, and internet shutdown. The International > Monetary Fund now projects that Iran’s GDP will contract by 6% in 2026, > with consumer prices rising nearly 70% during the same period. > > The Iranian economy is dominated by a network of semi-governmental > institutions with ties to the security establishment. These firms largely > control the flow of imports, exports, and energy resources, and are also > tasked with navigating the complex web of sanctions the country faces when > trading abroad and repatriating funds from the sale of oil and gas. > > For conservative skeptics of the MOU, who doubt the deal will bring a > durable end to the war, these powerful business conglomerates are seen as > the forces pressing the government hardest to move forward. Known in > Persian as “khusulati”—a blend of the words for “private” and > “government”—these firms stand to regain access to billions of dollars of > frozen funds, as well as new business opportunities in Iran’s oligarchical > economy. > > “It is likely they were behind the scenes pushing for an agreement because > their trade and business interests had been jeopardized, especially in the > UAE. We know that in the first weeks of the war, the UAE had confiscated > their money and shut off access to their bank accounts. They are the ones > who wanted this deal so their business returns to normal, and authorities > listen to them because they have power in the economy,” said Sadeghi, in > reference to the “khusulati” firms. “Ordinary people or even politicians > who oppose this deal or memorandum of understanding are the ones who don’t > have any financial interest in this matter.” > > Sadeghi added that she believes that despite the seemingly attractive > promises of economic relief contained in the MOU, past experience, > including attacks on Iran during negotiations in 2025 and 2026, suggests > the two countries will fail to find a final detente that settles the > conflict or permanently lifts sanctions. > > “I personally think that Iran and the United States will not reach any > agreement whatsoever,” she said, adding that the U.S. was “addicted to > sanctions and bullying.” > *Polarization or Sedition* > > While the Iranian government has engaged in successive waves of crackdowns > against liberal and monarchist opponents, ethnic separatists, and even > disillusioned conservative political figures, the tensions with the small > group of committed opponents of the current agreement with Washington may > lead to a rare confrontation with a segment of the political system to its > right. > > Members of the broad political establishment who support the deal have > warned against further public dissent, characterizing recent demonstrations > as an attempt to create unrest in a country still reeling from a failed > uprising that killed thousands in January. “Mossad is awake at night to > create sedition,” said Hesamodin Ashna, an advisor to former President > Hassan Rouhani in a public statement seen as a warning to opponents of the > MOU. “Do not polarize society, Do not camp on the street.” > > For the time being, proponents of the agreement appear likely to continue > the peace negotiations with Washington. > > The agreement, which will also require the U.S. to pressure Israel to end > its assault on Lebanon, now depends on whether Iran has successfully > created enough deterrence through its missile attacks and closure of the > strait to prevent Trump from resuming the war later in his term. > > “If Trump doesn’t experience real pain, he will be planning for his next > attack,” said Dr. Foad Izadi, a professor at the University of Tehran, > explaining the perspective of Iranian opponents of the deal. “What this > faction wants to see is for the pain to be great enough that next time > someone in the White House argues for an attack on Iran, he will be > ignored.” > > Leave a comment > <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=2510348&post_id=202626415&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&isFreemail=true&comments=true&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMDc0NTQxODIsInBvc3RfaWQiOjIwMjYyNjQxNSwiaWF0IjoxNzgxODE1NzcwLCJleHAiOjE3ODQ0MDc3NzAsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0yNTEwMzQ4Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.7KBXv5GWglBNBiX6yQW8D8vSOVSrPgM9GGTYlP2ag8Q&r=1rz46e&utm_campaign=email-half-magic-comments&action=post-comment> > > Share > <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=2510348&post_id=202626415&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&utm_campaign=email-share&action=share&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=true&r=1rz46e&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMDc0NTQxODIsInBvc3RfaWQiOjIwMjYyNjQxNSwiaWF0IjoxNzgxODE1NzcwLCJleHAiOjE3ODQ0MDc3NzAsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0yNTEwMzQ4Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.7KBXv5GWglBNBiX6yQW8D8vSOVSrPgM9GGTYlP2ag8Q> > > * Become a Drop Site News Paid Subscriber * > > Drop Site News is reader-supported. 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