On Fri, Jun 19, 2026 at 10:15 AM Jeremy Scahill < [email protected]> wrote:
> Tehran believes it won a historic victory over the U.S., but is prepared > for the deal to fall apart, a senior Iranian official tells Drop Site. > ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ > ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ > ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ > ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ > ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ > ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ > ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ > ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ > ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ > ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ > ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ > ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ > ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ > ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ > ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ > ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ > ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ > ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ > ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ > Tehran believes it won a historic victory over the U.S., but is prepared > for the deal to fall apart, a senior Iranian official tells Drop Site. > > Jeremy Scahill <https://substack.com/@jeremyscahill> > Jun 19 > <https://substack.com/@jeremyscahill> > > > <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=2510348&post_id=202720028&utm_source=substack&isFreemail=true&submitLike=true&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMDc0NTQxODIsInBvc3RfaWQiOjIwMjcyMDAyOCwicmVhY3Rpb24iOiLinaQiLCJpYXQiOjE3ODE4Nzg0OTgsImV4cCI6MTc4NDQ3MDQ5OCwiaXNzIjoicHViLTI1MTAzNDgiLCJzdWIiOiJyZWFjdGlvbiJ9.iJWQ7RsPbBjFJ45AFY2VFf1YJd7oDXyzjnC8b3okD1E&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email-reaction&r=1rz46e> > > <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=2510348&post_id=202720028&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&isFreemail=true&comments=true&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMDc0NTQxODIsInBvc3RfaWQiOjIwMjcyMDAyOCwiaWF0IjoxNzgxODc4NDk4LCJleHAiOjE3ODQ0NzA0OTgsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0yNTEwMzQ4Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.6M37yNqJ79VSG9lToA9muTY2ulESv2Z1T3m-m0TXNoU&r=1rz46e&utm_campaign=email-half-magic-comments&action=post-comment&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email> > > <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=2510348&post_id=202720028&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&utm_campaign=email-share&action=share&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=true&r=1rz46e&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMDc0NTQxODIsInBvc3RfaWQiOjIwMjcyMDAyOCwiaWF0IjoxNzgxODc4NDk4LCJleHAiOjE3ODQ0NzA0OTgsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0yNTEwMzQ4Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.6M37yNqJ79VSG9lToA9muTY2ulESv2Z1T3m-m0TXNoU> > > <https://substack.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.F9vN21BK9Paqg9sMUCRdPkZ9S-BOn-U3jFLwIhX6Gdk?&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email> > > READ IN APP > <https://open.substack.com/pub/dropsitenews/p/iran-trump-lebanon-israel-war-mou?utm_source=email&redirect=app-store&utm_campaign=email-read-in-app> > > > *Drop Site is reader-funded — no corporate owners, no outside influence. > Your support is what keeps this journalism independent and free. Please > consider making a tax-deductible donation to support our work > <https://substack.com/redirect/dbaff5db-8de8-4462-a882-c176bf8ab739?j=eyJ1IjoiMXJ6NDZlIn0.vwFUUWXitToCG6lkdgIOEZJA0yByKrMNCn3mtPeVIW4>.* > Upgrade to paid > <https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZHJvcHNpdGVuZXdzLmNvbS9zdWJzY3JpYmU_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.NN1v_g4c6UwSOY1PYiJcPU2XrSJyddggKDIZfLHSzeA?&utm_medium=email&utm_source=subscribe-widget&utm_content=202720028> > > <https://substack.com/redirect/167d89b4-87f5-4ac3-87e6-8392dbf6a970?j=eyJ1IjoiMXJ6NDZlIn0.vwFUUWXitToCG6lkdgIOEZJA0yByKrMNCn3mtPeVIW4> > A > drone is photographed in front of a poster depicting portraits of Iran's > late and new Supreme Leaders, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Ayatollah Ali > Khamenei, and Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, during a nightly pro-government > rally at Enghelab Square in downtown Tehran, on June 5, 2026. Photo by > Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images. > > If President Donald Trump does not force Israel to halt its escalating > attacks on Lebanon, Iran told mediators it is prepared to suspend the > agreement signed this week and launch retaliatory strikes against Israel, a > senior Iranian official told Drop Site. > > “Regarding Lebanon, we have warned both the mediators and the American > side that if the regime fails to comply with the existing agreement, Iran > will respond with substantial military measures without prior public > notice,” said the Iranian official, who is not authorized to speak > publicly. “Should the United States intervene, conditions particularly > those related to the Strait of Hormuz could rapidly revert to a wartime > environment.” > > On Friday, reports emerged that a ceasefire agreement had been reached > between Israel and Hezbollah, but an Israeli official said that even with a > ceasefire, Israel would not withdraw its forces from Lebanon. Another > Israeli official told Channel 12 that Israel retains the right to strike > against perceived threats, a common Israeli claim used to systematically > violate ceasefire agreements in Gaza and Lebanon. > > Over the past week, Israel has continued to relentlessly attack Lebanon, > and its forces remain deeply entrenched in the south. In a barrage of more > than 20 airstrikes on Thursday night, Israel killed at least 47 people, > according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry. Since March, when Hezbollah entered > the war alongside Iran, Israel has killed more than 3,900 people in Lebanon > and displace over 1.2 million. Hezbollah has continued to ferociously > retaliate against Israel’s military campaign and has stunned Israel with > its ability to inflict losses on its occupation forces. More than 30 > Israeli troops have been confirmed killed in action since March 2. > > On June 14, as Iran and the U.S. were finalizing the terms of the > memorandum of understanding, Israel bombed the southern Beirut suburb of > Dahiyeh. Iran came within hours of striking Israel in response, but > officials said Tehran ultimately agreed to hold its fire after securing > last minute concessions from Trump. Iran had previously called attacks on > Beirut an escalation that would not go unanswered. > Upgrade to paid > <https://substack.com/redirect/2/eyJlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZHJvcHNpdGVuZXdzLmNvbS9zdWJzY3JpYmU_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.NN1v_g4c6UwSOY1PYiJcPU2XrSJyddggKDIZfLHSzeA?&utm_medium=email&utm_source=subscribe-widget&utm_content=202720028> > > The continued war in Lebanon and Iran’s pervasive mistrust of Trump have > called into question the viability of a lasting deal. Technical talks that > were scheduled to begin Friday in Switzerland were postponed, with Iranian > officials citing the continued attacks in Lebanon. Some officials have also > denounced the prospect of Iranian leaders being photographed meeting with > Trump or other U.S. officials responsible for assassinating the country’s > Supreme Leader. U.S. officials have acknowledged the delay, but have not > confirmed the reason. Late Thursday, the White House said Vice President JD > Vance—who has been put forward as the public face of the U.S. > negotiations—would not be traveling to Switzerland as previously announced, > saying, “The logistics of these negotiations have never been simple or > predictable.” A senior Pakistani official claimed the meeting was canceled > because of religious observances related to the Islamic month of Muharram, > a period of mourning for Shia Muslims. > > The cancellation of what was initially portrayed as a formal signing > ceremony, potentially featuring Trump, indicates the fragile nature of the > entire process. “We fully recognize that the implementation of this > memorandum will be highly challenging due to President Trump’s > unpredictable and volatile approach,” said the Iranian official, who is not > authorized to publicly speak about internal deliberations. “It is entirely > possible that the Iran file, like several of Trump’s other political and > economic initiatives, will be abandoned before reaching completion.” > > As Israeli officials continue to publicly denounce Trump and the > agreement, Vance has pushed back ferociously, offering an unprecedented > rebuke of Israel from an administration that has given it carte blanche to > expand its wars across the region. > > “Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to > the nation of Israel at this moment in time, and he happens to be the head > of state of the world’s superpower. If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli > government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have > anywhere left in the entire world,” Vance said > <https://substack.com/redirect/26f092e6-c36f-4854-b436-16730cdb2e12?j=eyJ1IjoiMXJ6NDZlIn0.vwFUUWXitToCG6lkdgIOEZJA0yByKrMNCn3mtPeVIW4> > in a press conference Thursday, adding that Israeli leaders should “wake up > and smell the reality.” > > In remarks aimed at Israel, Vance told > <https://substack.com/redirect/52488c86-bc46-418c-b259-8f681daab37f?j=eyJ1IjoiMXJ6NDZlIn0.vwFUUWXitToCG6lkdgIOEZJA0yByKrMNCn3mtPeVIW4> > The New York Times, “You’re a country of 9 million people. You can’t just > kill your way out of solving every single national security problem that > you have.” At the opening of the G7 summit in France Monday, Trump > repeatedly criticized Israel, saying, “Israel has been fighting Hezbollah > for too long and too many people are being killed.” > > The White House has frequently pushed stories to friendly media outlets > involving anonymous officials depicting Trump and Netanyahu in conflict > only to turn around and endorse more aggressive Israeli attacks in both > Gaza and Lebanon. The tenor of this criticism and the fact that it is being > aired publicly by Trump and Vance directly is a new development. > > Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing intense criticism inside > Israel as he kicks off his campaign for re-election, with members of his > own cabinet and opposition politicians alike denouncing the Iran deal and > warning him against withdrawing from Lebanon. Some prominent political > leaders have called for an expansion of the war. > > Netanyahu has sought to strike a diplomatic tone with Trump, whom he has > called “the greatest friend Israel has ever had in the White House,” but > has sought to portray himself as capable of separating U.S. and Israeli > interests. He has argued that Trump’s agreement with Iran does not bind > Israel. “We will stay in the Lebanon security buffer zone for as long as > necessary,” Netanyahu said on June 15. “Many times we see eye to eye,” > Netanyahu said of the U.S.-Israeli relationship, “and there are also cases > in which we see less eye to eye. I am responsible for Israel’s security > interests. I stand up for them.” Defense Minister Israel Katz proclaimed > Monday, “We oppose the withdrawal of the Israeli army from Lebanon, despite > all current and future pressures.” > > Iranian negotiators fought to have a complete Israeli withdrawal included > in the memorandum of understanding, while the U.S. pushed for vague > language about ceasing hostilities. In the end, the text declared “the > immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, > including in Lebanon” and “ensuring the territorial integrity and > sovereignty of Lebanon.” While Iran argues that this language means Israel > must withdraw its occupation forces, top Iranian officials, including > Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, have suggested the issue may not be > resolved until a comprehensive deal is signed by the U.S. and Iran. > “Without the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the territories they > occupied during this war, the war has not fully come to an end,” Araghchi > said Tuesday. > > <https://substack.com/redirect/53f54035-2220-4bdc-854d-c31ce0664df0?j=eyJ1IjoiMXJ6NDZlIn0.vwFUUWXitToCG6lkdgIOEZJA0yByKrMNCn3mtPeVIW4> > President > Donald Trump receives a tour of Chateau de Versailles from President of > France Emmanuel Macron ahead of a dinner on June 17, 2026 in Versailles, > France. During the dinner, Trump signed the memorandum of understanding > with Iran. Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images. > Dueling Narratives > > In the days since the terms of the memorandum of understanding signed by > the U.S. and Iran became public, debate has spread in both countries. Trump > is facing criticism from some of his most die-hard supporters who hoped he > would continue to escalate the war and empower Israel to broaden its > attacks on Lebanon. In Iran, there is ferocious debate > <https://substack.com/redirect/254305ea-063a-4d96-9e93-56fff80be8ae?j=eyJ1IjoiMXJ6NDZlIn0.vwFUUWXitToCG6lkdgIOEZJA0yByKrMNCn3mtPeVIW4> > within the elite political echelon and while Supreme Leader Mojtaba > Khamenei said he gave his consent for the country’s political leadership to > sign the MOU, he asserted in a statement Thursday that he personally > opposed some of its terms. > > As the narrative battles continue to play out in both countries, the > senior Iranian official, who has direct knowledge of Tehran’s > decision-making process, provided Drop Site with an extensive account of > how Iranian negotiators viewed the process that led to the deal and offered > an assessment of the ultimate feasibility of the framework. > > Throughout the two months following the signing of an initial ceasefire > and the meetings in Islamabad between U.S. and Iranian officials, > negotiators have engaged in indirect negotiations aimed at reaching an > agreement to end the war. In public, Trump adopted the belligerent tone of > a conqueror, claiming Iranians were “begging” him to make a deal and > pledging that Tehran would surrender, U.S. troops would enter Iran to take > custody of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and that Iran would > receive no money as part of a deal with the U.S. > > Despite Trump’s public bravado, the reality was that it was the U.S. that > repeatedly sought talks on ending the war. As Drop Site reported > <https://substack.com/redirect/ee800877-f45f-4e80-96ab-9ed355634f51?j=eyJ1IjoiMXJ6NDZlIn0.vwFUUWXitToCG6lkdgIOEZJA0yByKrMNCn3mtPeVIW4>, > Trump’s Special Envoy Steve Witkoff began sending messages to Iranian > officials days after the war began on February 28. Iran took the position > that it needed to re-establish a deterrent and would not allow a > de-escalation until it believed it had done so. > > Behind the scenes, once serious indirect talks began, Iran’s negotiators > held firm to a set of red lines, among them: the Israeli war against > Lebanon must be brought to an end, Iran would not agree to export its > enriched uranium, and Iran is entitled to billions of dollars of its frozen > assets. > > “The formation of this memorandum was the result of persistent requests > and insistence from the American side and various mediators,” said the > Iranian official. “Nevertheless, from the outset we opposed both unlawful > wars launched against our country, and we welcomed the prospect of peace > after repeated requests for de-escalation.” > > In the end, Trump agreed to Iran’s proposal to break the agreement into > two main phases. The first would address an end to the war, including in > Lebanon, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the architecture of > financial compensation to Iran and a re-affirmation that Iran would not > seek to produce or acquire a nuclear weapon. The second phase would involve > an initial 60-day window to negotiate a comprehensive agreement on the > future of Iran’s nuclear enrichment, the fate of its current stockpile and, > crucially for Iran, terms that would lead to a lifting of all economic > sanctions. > > The senior Iranian official said the terms in the agreement governing the > lifting of the U.S. military blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and endorsing > Iranian management of the waterway, as well as the financial > commitments—lifting of sanctions, unfreezing of money, and the > establishment of a $300 billion reconstruction fund—included in the MOU > “constitute an official record and a clear indication of the failure of > President Trump’s policy that led to the initiation of two wars against > Iran.” > > Iranian negotiators emphasize that they do not trust Trump and frequently > point out that twice in one year the U.S. claimed to be negotiating with > Iran only to launch wars against it in the midst of a diplomatic process. > At the same time, they argue, the geopolitical reality has been > fundamentally altered since February. Iran’s use of asymmetric warfare, > particularly in asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz, alongside its > ability to launch ballistic missile and drone attacks across the > region—combined with its refusal to capitulate to two nuclear powers—serve > as a warning to the U.S. about the stakes of resuming the war. > > “We were fully aware of the economic consequences of this conflict for the > region and the wider international community. The prospect of a major > disruption in the Strait of Hormuz was among the most significant factors > that ultimately contributed to the emergence of peace,” the Iranian > official said. “The immense costs imposed on all parties including > extensive economic damage to countries across the region and the world were > the price paid for President Trump’s curiosity to experiment with the > capabilities of the U.S. military.” > > Iranian officials say they intentionally negotiated for a deal structured > through a reciprocal framework. If the U.S. does not abide by the terms, > Iran has the ability to halt the process or respond militarily. > > “This memorandum explicitly commits the United States to refraining from > threats against Iran,” said the Iranian official. “Should President Trump > once again issue public threats against Iran, each such threat will be met > with costs imposed on American interests in the region through new and > evolving means. We would also implement corresponding pauses in the > execution of certain commitments under the memorandum.” > > In his campaign to sell this deal as a victory, Trump has focused on the > fact that Iran has formally agreed not to attempt to manufacture or procure > a nuclear weapon. But this has been Iran’s longstanding position, beginning > with the 1970 signing of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and was also > stated explicitly in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal that Trump denounces daily. > “Following two U.S.-Israeli wars against Iran, Washington once again > succeeded only in obtaining Iran’s reiterated commitment not to pursue > nuclear weapons,” the Iranian official said, saying “it was intentionally > offered to President Trump as a symbolic concession, a cheap re-gift.” > > While Iran sought to exclude any commitments on its stockpile of enriched > uranium, it eventually agreed to some terms. Trump consistently insisted > that Iran could have no nuclear enrichment and that the U.S. would take > custody of its roughly 1,000 pounds of 60% enriched uranium. Instead, the > MOU says the U.S. and Iran agreed to “resolve the disposition of > stockpiled, enriched material” with a “minimum methodology to be > down-blending on site under the supervision” of the International Atomic > Energy Agency. This approach precisely mirrors the terms Iran had proposed > before the war began in February when it was negotiating with U.S. > officials. > > “The formal acceptance of all provisions by the United States constitutes > both the consolidation and official declaration of the Trump > administration’s wartime policy,” the Iranian official said, saying the > terms of the “agreement were drafted in alignment with our national > interests and the interests of the broader region.” > > Over the past several years, Iran has sought to deepen its ties with > China, Russia, and other nations throughout the Eastern hemisphere. Since > the launch of the 12-Day War in June 2025, Tehran has escalated efforts to > expand its political, military and economic partnerships. Those efforts > were kicked into high gear over the past four months. “This war will > inevitably deepen our dependence on Eastern partners under circumstances > imposed upon us. As a result, we will be compelled to pursue a far more > rapid expansion of our security, economic, and political relations with > China,” the Iranian official said. > > The February war called into question the viability of the rapprochement > between Iran and several of its Arab allies in the Persian Gulf that > preceded it, as the U.S. widely utilized military infrastructure to wage > its war against Iran. Most Gulf nations portrayed Iran as the aggressor in > the conflict, regularly denouncing its ballistic missile and drone strikes > overwhelmingly aimed at U.S. military bases and facilities as unjustified > attacks against their sovereignty. Now, Iranian officials say, many of > these relationships are being repaired and discussions are ongoing about > joint economic projects and elevated diplomatic ties. > > If this agreement does lead to an end to the active military war—which > remains a very open question—Iran will face its own domestic realities. The > attacks by the U.S. and Israel have had an undeniable unifying effect on > Iranian society, which has seen nightly mass gatherings in public squares. > This rallying around the flag was also aided by Trump’s threats to wipe out > Iranian civilization and the attacks on civilians, including the bombing > <https://substack.com/redirect/728bdf03-0c5a-4707-bedd-3ebfe2b2e5db?j=eyJ1IjoiMXJ6NDZlIn0.vwFUUWXitToCG6lkdgIOEZJA0yByKrMNCn3mtPeVIW4> > of the Minab girls school in the opening hours of the war. Israeli > officials have made no secret of their intent to increase their covert > actions in Iran, aimed at spurring an uprising. If the U.S. and Israeli > bombing stops and Iran shifts from its role as fighting against the odds > versus two nuclear powers, it will be left to face the economic and > political issues confronting the country prior to the war. The extent to > which the sense of unity on display since February will endure won’t be > clear for some time. > > “Political and social divisions will require considerable time to heal,” > said the Iranian official. “The generational and institutional changes > resulting from extensive assassinations and losses within Iran’s political, > security, and military leadership will undoubtedly create additional > obstacles to the country’s development.” > > There is no doubt Iran and the U.S. are at a historic crossroads in the > era that began with the 1979 Islamic revolution. Because of the erratic > nature of Trump and the way in which he integrates ego, personal ties, and > efforts aimed at enriching his friends and family, Iran must approach any > deal with the U.S. as subject to abandonment, violation, or cancellation. > The 2015 nuclear deal took years to achieve, yet it was ripped up in an > instant by Trump, kicking off a series of events that led to the first open > wars launched by the U.S. against Iran since 1979. > > “Our assessment is that, due to deficiencies in the expertise and > technical preparedness of the American negotiating team, the specialized > nuclear negotiations are unlikely to reach a mutually satisfactory > conclusion within the proposed sixty-day timeframe,” said the Iranian > official. “Our military institutions will therefore remain on full alert. > Furthermore, should a definitive assessment emerge indicating a renewed > likelihood of U.S. military action against Iran, preemptive measures > against an updated target bank would be considered.” > > Leave a comment > <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=2510348&post_id=202720028&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&isFreemail=true&comments=true&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMDc0NTQxODIsInBvc3RfaWQiOjIwMjcyMDAyOCwiaWF0IjoxNzgxODc4NDk4LCJleHAiOjE3ODQ0NzA0OTgsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0yNTEwMzQ4Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.6M37yNqJ79VSG9lToA9muTY2ulESv2Z1T3m-m0TXNoU&r=1rz46e&utm_campaign=email-half-magic-comments&action=post-comment> > > Share > <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=2510348&post_id=202720028&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&utm_campaign=email-share&action=share&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=true&r=1rz46e&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMDc0NTQxODIsInBvc3RfaWQiOjIwMjcyMDAyOCwiaWF0IjoxNzgxODc4NDk4LCJleHAiOjE3ODQ0NzA0OTgsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0yNTEwMzQ4Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.6M37yNqJ79VSG9lToA9muTY2ulESv2Z1T3m-m0TXNoU> > > * Become a Drop Site News Paid Subscriber * > > Drop Site News is reader-supported. 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