John has the periodization right. PNAC's unipolar fantasy died once already, 
against North Korea, and it's dying again against Iran. But calling this a 
repetition of neo-conservative failure treats a state mechanism as a bad idea 
some faction keeps recycling. Diplomacy worked. The JCPOA worked, on its own 
terms, until Netanyahu and McCain torched it. So why does the U.S. state keep 
reaching for war after the thing that worked better?

Not ideology. Structure. Poulantzas: the state condenses a balance of class 
forces, it isn't simply capital's transmission belt, and in a crisis that 
condensation can swing toward the executive at the expense of whatever fraction 
was invested in the negotiated track. Weber: patrimonialism, power personalized 
around loyalty to a man rather than routed through institutions. Put them 
together and you get what I've been calling patrimonial Bonapartism. Not 
"rising dictatorial tendency," which is what John's conclusion gestures at and 
then drops. A mechanism. Trump's personal discretion overrode the diplomatic 
track and green-lit a war that Netanyahu was already in Washington discussing 
in December, per Axios, before the Iranian protests that are supposed to have 
triggered all this had even started.

"Both sides are right and both are wrong" sounds dialectical. It's 
foreign-policy realism wearing a dialectical coat. Neither war nor diplomacy 
secures the aims of U.S. imperialism, sure. But that's not the same question as 
why the war fraction beat the diplomatic fraction this time. Diplomacy didn't 
fail on its own terms. The coalition that tried to institutionalize it lost.

One place John is dead right, and it's the sentence I keep coming back to: the 
thundering silence of the union leadership. That's not a footnote. That's the 
condition of possibility for Bonapartist discretion going uncontested at all. 
No organized proletarian pole, no friction on the executive. That's the thread 
worth pulling, not the neo-con genealogy, accurate as it is, which still treats 
this as a family quarrel among strategists of empire

--
Tony


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