>From - Journal of the American Medical Association August 12, 2009 Vol 302 No 6 - pages 679 and 680 -
"Understanding Influenza Backward" by D Morens MD and JK Tuabenberger MD PhD - the entire last paragraph follows - "Considering the long and confusing track record of pandemic influenza, it is difficult to predict the future course of the present H1N1 pandemic. The virus' modest transmission efficiency, the possibility of a degree of preexisiting population immunity due to prior cross-reactive viruses and vaccines, and its arrival in the Northern Hemisphere as summer approaches all give reason to hope for a more indolent pandemic course and fewer deaths than in many past pandemics. If summer weather in the Northern Hemisphere slows viral spread, transmission may well surge again in the fall or winter to create a seasonal wave, but pandemic history suggests that changes neither in transmissibility nor in pathogenicity are inevitable. It will be critical to assess the effect of large-scale pandemic outbreaks in the Southern Hemisphere in the current and coming (winter) months. Once again, influenza is showing its latest tricks and must be watched closely to understand what is happening. It is well to remember that, as Kierkegaard said about life, influenza epidemics are lived forward and understood backward." (Is that poetic or what?) (PS - hey - it just occurred to me - what ever happened to bird flu?) --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "massfire" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/massfire?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
