https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/150936.shtml?cone#contents
storm is aimed at yarmouth nova scotia now ===================== NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast "cone", the solid white and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles. It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least 74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of 39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in the Wind History graphic linked above. ========================== bottom line - they are telling us where they 'think' there is a 66.6% chance that the (eye of the) hurricane will travel -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "massfire" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to massfire+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/massfire/CAFXWwKaMFHK8TpcmJU_UnHWPS4YH%3DNt-pmf7VjCYwsi-FRZxDg%40mail.gmail.com.
