Tl;Dr: does CMPXCHG assume it will fail or succeed?

I am on Java 8, and need an atomic boolean.  I don't want to pay higher 
memory cost, so I am using an AtomicIntegerFieldUpdater.    Right now I 
have some code that looks 


queue.add(work);
if (running.compareAndSet(this, stopped, running)) {
  executor.execute(queueHandler);
}



I was looking at optimizing this code and noticed that compareAndSet() 
could be changed to a getAndSet() pretty easily.  Looking at the hotspot 
code there are three atomic instructions that are used: cmpxchg, xadd, and 
xchg.

Here is my question: the 2nd and 3rd instructions know for sure they are 
going to modify the value, so they can bring in the cacheline as modified.  
But, cmpxchg could potentially bring the cacheline in as 
shared/exclusive/owned and not invalidate all the other caches.  If I have 
special knowledge that I will likely fail to exchange values, then wouldn't 
it make sense to call get() just before compareAndSet() ?  I wouldn't have 
to do this is cmpxchg automatically did that for me, but then how could it 
guess whether it will win or lose?

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