Tech on Deck
Large Flat Panel Televisions Are Out; GPS Devices and Other Small Items 
Are In

By ROSS RUBIN
Nov. 18, 2008

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/TechOnDeck/story?id=6274302&page=1

According to NPD's recent Consumer Technology Holiday Spotlight Report, 
the economic malaise is going to affect a number of popular holiday gift 
items.

The report includes results from a fourth-quarter survey that asked 
consumers about their plans to buy items, such as flat panel 
televisions, desktop and notebook PCs, digital cameras, MP3 players, GPS 
devices and digital picture frames.

Across the board, consumers said the economy had caused them to 
reconsider planned purchases, with big-ticket items giving the most 
pause. The most adversely affected were flat panel televisions with 
40-inch or larger screens.

Sixty-three percent of those surveyed that had been planning to buy such 
a TV said they now definitely or probably would not.

In retail, the day after Thanksgiving, which has come to be called Black 
Friday, is known for consumers forming long lines in search of 
limited-quantity deals on products. In comparison to years past, 
however, more consumers will be focusing on credit lines and 
unemployment lines. In its third-quarter financial reports, Best Buy cut 
back its revenue forecast, citing the economic environment as the worst 
it had encountered in its 42-year history, and Circuit City recently 
closed 155 stores as it declared Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

Tweeter, a northeastern retailer of high end AV-equipment, also recently 
closed its distribution centers and sold itself to a liquidator.

Compounding the challenges of the macroeconomic softness are the high 
levels of penetration that have been achieved by many products that have 
seen strong sales for the past few holiday seasons. According to NPD's 
2008 Household Penetration Study, fielded in May 2008, flat panel TV 
penetration is now at 53 percent.

Notebook PCs are now at 48 percent. Among less expensive portable 
electronics that are easy to buy online, digital cameras are now in 76 
percent of U.S. households, while MP3 players are now at 50 percent.

As many categories reach maturity, there simply has been less fat to cut 
after the Thanksgiving feast. However, certain products will continue to 
see growth as they cannibalize alternatives and exploit niches. Among 
them are LCD televisions, which continue to grow at the expense of other 
TV technologies, and notebook PCs, which continue to eat into sales of 
desktops.

Of particular interest this holiday season are "netbook" PCs -- 
inexpensive ultra portables tuned for student usage, quick Web sessions 
and light computing.
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