Where There's Hope, There's Oscar

By DAVID CARR
The New York Times
February 20, 2009

THERE you are, minding your own business, going through the mail and 
its daily bounty of bad tidings. Let's see, your 401(k) is in the 
tank, that valiant effort to refinance the house is going nowhere, 
and oh yeah, your credit-card company just capped your card limit and 
is looking for most of the balance.

And then, magically, an invitation emerges from the pile. You've been 
invited to the 81st Annual Academy Awards. Actually, it's a scribbled 
note your movie fanatic neighbor dropped in your mailbox. ("Why waste 
money on a stamp?" you can hear her saying.) Turns out she's having 
some people over for the broadcast (Sunday at 8 p.m. on ABC). Sure, 
it's BYOB, but she's making her special nachos, her wide-screen 
hasn't been repossessed, and there will be an Oscar pool, with a 
hokey improvised trophy for the winner. Wow, life doesn't get any 
better than that these days.

It could be argued, and already has, that a spectacle as frothy as 
the Oscars has little salience at a time when people are losing 
homes, jobs and, in some cases, hope. But then again movie attendance 
is up this year so far, and there's nothing quite like gathering 
around something warm and sparkly when the darkness seems to be 
intruding at every turn.

Right now I'm in Los Angeles, attending warm-up events and putting 
some final finesse on my picks, but with the California legislature 
in marathon sessions to close a huge budget gap, grim realities are 
casting a bit of a pall here in Oscarland. But the show always goes 
on, and at some point a lot of us will give ourselves permission to 
brush away the clouds and stare at the sparkle, the drama and the 
nonsense that make the Oscars a maypole of American culture.

There is, after all, something oddly reassuring in the folkways of 
the Oscars. Who's to say there's anything wrong with poking fun at 
someone's dress or speech instead of spending yet another night 
casting a gimlet eye on household expenditures? And if you play your 
cards right in an Oscar pool with gullible or inattentive 
competitors, there might be some loot in it for you. Or at least a 
cheesy trophy.

It's an odd year for those filling out their Oscar slates, not 
because so much is up for grabs but because so much is writ. "Slumdog 
Millionaire" is the prohibitive favorite for best picture and a few 
other big categories. The studio-conceived "Curious Case of Benjamin 
Button" had a near-record 13 nominations, but "Slumdog," an 
independent film partially in Hindi, seems to have gone out front to 
stay.

Still, there are elements of suspense. Stung by steadily declining 
ratings (although the show remains a huge draw for the network), the 
producers of the Oscars have vowed to mix it up this year, so you can 
tune in expecting innovation and, yes, the occasional train wreck. In 
the actor races, there are some nail-biters: Mickey or Sean? Meryl or 
Kate? If you have a pulse, you probably have a rooting interest.

And the movies themselves? There is not a blockbuster in the bunch. 
But then this year's Super Bowl included two teams without a huge 
national following and blossomed into a classic with wonderful 
ratings and stories to occupy the water cooler.

You may not have seen all the movies this year, but as the 
Carpetbagger, a daily blogger for The New York Times Oscar Web site, 
I have spent much of this increasingly long award season staring into 
precursor awards and pundit prognostications and am here to help you 
separate the contenders from the pretenders. Oscar intelligence, if 
there is such a thing, might help you come up with that surprise pick 
in the supporting actress category to make the Monday afterward seem 
a bit brighter. There's nothing like having a little skin in the game 
to make your night at the Oscars a diverting one.

...

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/20/movies/awardsseason/20osca.html

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